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Dec/29/2020 news: \\ political party law reformed: idea > individual; transparency; female % \\ Pashinyan responds to "not being enough pro-Russian" \\ who owns which business? \\ protests & snap elect. \\ burglary case & HHK MP \\ humanitarian aid for Artsakh \\ Vitalik flexes muscles \\ bills pass
Your 14-minute Tuesday report in 3589 words.
Pashinyan about pre-war negotiations and "avoiding" the war:
The idea that a flexible foreign policy could have avoided this war is being constantly circulated. Those [former officials] who believe in this thesis must answer at least one question: as a result of their "flexible" policy, why was it not possible to avoid the war of 2016, which was preceded by the unprecedented escalation of 2015 and 2014? The "flexible" policy adopted by Armenia for many years led to the introduction of Russian proposals in January 2016, which proposed the return of 7 territories (5 + 2) without any legal status for Nagorno-Karabakh. Why did Russia make such an offer? For one simple reason, as a result of Armenia's "flexible" policy, the Madrid process had come to a standstill because Artsakh could receive a Status outside Azerbaijan only with the consent of Azerbaijan. It was obvious to Russia and everyone else that Azerbaijan would not agree to this, so it was necessary to find ways to break the deadlock. And, by the way, if certain people claim that Armenia's foreign policy after 2018 was not sufficiently pro-Russian and this was the reason for the war, then why in the conditions of the "sufficiently pro-Russian" policy of 2016 were Russian proposals born and why did the April war take place? There was only one way to prevent this war: return the regions and forget about Artsakh's legal status. Now, after the war is over and we know the outcome, the number of supporters of [giveaway of 7 regions] is growing. What they forget is that if we gave away the lands to avoid the war, we would have the same situation in Syunik borders. They used to accuse us of "selling lands" [he means the contradictory statements like Nikol sold the lands, and why didn't Nikol sell the lands earlier to avoid the war]. The biggest failure by the supporters of the "flexible policies" is that they spent years trying to avoid a war instead of preparing for it. Our biggest failure is that we weren't able to recover enough embezzled public property in the past 2.5 years to help us better prepare for the war. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039231.html
businesses owned by opposition leaders
What are the known businesses owned by some of the famous people you might have seen in the public square lately?
20% share in Lorva Amrots Ltd which plans to operate two hydro-power plants on Dzoraget river. Manukyan purchased the shares in 2011 after being appointed by Serj as the head of the Public Council. In 2015-2016, he owned 30% shares in Vanavka Group. In 2015-2017 he had 30% shares in Jermakunq Group. These companies extracted and bottled water. At the time, the director of these companies was charged with illegal bottling and causing ֏55 million in damages to the state. The corruption case was sent to the IRS, which terminated the investigation after "not finding a crime". The companies export the products mostly to Russia.
Vanetsyan is a poor boy, according to the public declarations database. But if you have time, take a look at the investigative report I covered in Ap29/2020 news, according to which Vanetsyan's family allegedly used offshore firms and owns mining shares. More on that here. Here is a Hetq investigative report. Vanetsyan's father owns AV Group flower importing business. About a year ago, the police investigated several flower sellers near a stadium. An opposition outlet claimed that the sellers were "beaten and forced" to testify that Vanetsyan's father was running an underground business. This was never properly proven and the opposition's claim that Vanetsyan was about to be charged did not happen. The police confirmed that there was an investigation against several flower sellers. These flower sellers ended up hiring Vanetsyan's co-party-creator Arsen Babayan as a lawyer. Vanetsyan's father owns 50% shares of A B Export oil import company that began operating in 2017. It was a minor player that quit the market in 2019. Vanetsyan's father also owns 60% of A B Trans transportation company. In Nov/2019, CivilNet wrote about Arthur Vanetsyan's cousins' possible involvement with Zangezur Copper factory (massive business). The same offshore firm in Cyprus, which purchased Zangezur shares, was tied to Vanetsyan's cousins' another business in the same offshore. Vanetsyan's cousins also own a Switzerland-based Exoil wholesale cooking oil and shipping company. In 2019 it had a revenue of $148 million (11 billion Rubles). The cousins don't do this business in Armenia. Per 2019 registration, Arthur Vanetsyan himself owns one apartment, $10,000, and ֏1 million. Media reported in May/2020 that Vanetsyan's cousin purchased a ֏300 million mansion in Yerevan, which was donated to then-new political party "Hayreniq", co-founded by Arthur Vanetsyan and Arsen Babayan (the guy who is accused of helping HHK to fabricate documents in 2018 to hijack the Constitutional Court by appointing HHK MP Hrayr Tovmasyan as a judge). Arthur Vanetsyan's mother served as the chief of the personnel-management department in Serj and Pashinyan administrations, before quitting and working as Serj's aide. Vanetsyan's wife owns Villa Montessori preschool in Yerevan. She also runs the Young Education Center Ltd.
ARF Ishkhan Saghatelyan
Pashinyan appointed Saghatelyan as Gegharquniq governor for a brief period after the 2018 revolution, when Pashinyan created a unity-government, represented by all political parties. The honeymoon soon ended and each party went their way. Saghatelyan owns shares in i-mega Service Ltd. It's a tourism agency founded in 2006. It operates in Armenia, Artsakh, and Georgia. Saghatelyan founded Navasar company and serves as director. It's owned by his father. Saghatelyan family owns the Tsovasar hotel complex on Lake Sevan shores. It's 10,000 m2 (a hectare?). As of 2018, Saghatelyan declared ownership of 8 pieces of land, 2 apartments, ֏18.5 million, $45,000, and €15,000. Saghatelyan's father is the mayor of Gegharquniq's Geghamavan settlement. This municipality had recently sent a letter demanding Pashinyan's resignation. Saghatelyan used to be a shareholder of Shiman Ltd which is no longer active.
BHK leader Gagik "dodi gago" Tsarukyan
BUCKLE UP, KIDS! Overall, Tsarukyan runs 54 companies. Студент, комсомолец, спортсмен, u наконец, он просто красавиц. His business empire was covered in details here. Textile, gas stations, malls, Multi Group empire, Shangri-La Casino, Ararat Cognac & Wine Factory, BMW official office Euromotors (also Hyundai, Gazel, Niva), Multi Motors, Magas Invest, Multi Wellness, Olimpavan sports complex, Kotayk beer factory, TechnAlyumin door & window factory, Multi Rest House hotel chain, Paravon luxury restaurant, Onira Club, Zvartnot's airport's upper-level service company Avia Service, Farm Adama, Multi Pharm pharmacy, Multi Leon gas stations, Multi Solar solar panels. He owns shares in Frank Mueller Yerevan watch company, Fortsa, Multi Gold, Multi Diamond jewelry firms, several fish-breeding businesses. He also runs businesses in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Czechia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Latvia. Per official declaration, he owns $168 million, €29 million, ֏675 million, 14 pieces of land, 6 houses, 2 public buildings, 1 apartment.
Details for BHK MP Mikael Melkumyan and HHK Vahram Baghdasaryan in the link below.
The street demonstrations, organized by the former regime and its allies, continue. They demand Pashinyan's resignation and the appointment of their candidate Vazgen Manukyan as the Prime Minister for the duration of a year, after which they agree to hold new elections. ARF leader Artsvik Minasyan said they don't plan to discuss snap elections with Pashinyan. "Right now, our only demand is Pashinyan's resignation. We demand SIS to immediately hold every criminal accountable". The demonstrators gathered in front of the SIS building to present the demands. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039316.html
Pashinyan meets leaders of several opposition parties
felony case: ex-HHK MP charged with armed attack on ex-IRS official
In August of this year, Russia extradited a former HHK MP Alraghatsi Lyovik to Armenia. He was wanted for allegedly burglarizing and shooting at a senior IRS official a decade ago. At the time, his case was "frozen". It was relaunched in 2018. (magic wand) NSS says: suspect Lyovik, with the help of citizens AK and AN, organized an armed burglary against IRS Chief (?) Avetisyan in 2008. AK was in the United States. In 2004, he stole $150,000 from jewelry shops in Los Angeles. He got caught but managed to flee to Armenia. Once in Armenia, AK colluded with policeman AN to organize a similar criminal ring in Armenia. [MP] Lyovik personally knew AK, and learned about their burglaries. Since Lyovik had bad relations with the IRS chief (victim), he decided to punish the victim by urging AK to burglarize his house. Lyovik revealed the plot to his brother-in-law, who happened to be the victim's personal aide. The latter gave all the personal habits and details about the victim to the burglars. [read the article for the full story, or wait for a Hollywood movie in theaters near you] The burglars and organizers are charged with felonies. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203835 , https://youtu.be/brdozVbwQ6A , https://factor.am/274836.html , https://armtimes.com/hy/article/183522 , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203835 ,
Russian Orthodox chapel will be built
... in the Armenian settlement near Nakhijevan where Azerbaijan had earlier shut down a Russian helicopter, which killed and wounded Russian pilots. It'll be on a hill in Yeraskh. Construction starts on January 6th. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039259.html
Vitalik Balasanyan will return the lands, kicks junkies, and restrict Facebook
Artsakh President Arayik earlier announced that he will allow his opponents to take jobs in the new coalition government. Kocharyan-ally Vitali Balasanyan became the Security Council chief. Vitalik: we will return Hadrut and Askeran region with the help of Russian and Armenian military-political efforts. We are in a better situation now to solve territorial issues. We will soon create border guard forces. It will report to MoD, which will report to the Security Council (his office). Drugs have no place in Artsakh. Drug users must quit or leave Artsakh now. We need to return to traditional values of giving women as wives after asking if the man had served in the army. No public official will be allowed to use Facebook during work. More: https://youtu.be/DceHyi4AB5g https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289056/
search operations are paused / the "welcome to Azerbaijan" sign
Azerbaijan received criticism for refusing to allow search teams to enter the Hadrut region yesterday. They also prevented UNESCO from checking the status of several Armenian cultural sights, after complaining that UNESCO was "biased" against Azerbaijan during the war. HR Ombudsman: Any untrue information can not be a reason to disrupt the humanitarian process [referring to unconfirmed rumors on social media that Armenians opened fire at Azeris in Hadrut. An unofficial Iranian social media channel claims 3 Azeris were killed but due to an internal fight.] The Human Rights Ombudsman also criticized the Azeri troops for installing a provocative "welcome to Azerbaijan" sign on part of a road that went under Azeri control near Syunik borders. The Ombudsman says it's meant to intimidate the locals. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039233.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039237.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039244.html , https://factor.am/325511.html
Context: BHK MP Naira Zohrabyan referred to the majority of Armenian voters as human trash *(or as she says: impure), and called for the establishment of forced re-education camps so people won't vote for a "wrong party" again. The ruling QP party launched a process to terminate her chairmanship in Parliamentary Human Rights Committee. Read yesterday's thread for more details.* QP MP Arthur: the law states that the Parliament can appoint and terminate the chairman. The termination of this seat does not require the same procedures as in the case of MPs and Judges. Armenian Constitution states that in Armenia, human beings are of the highest value, and inalienable human dignity is the inseparable basis of their rights and freedoms. MP Zohrabyan's public conduct is against it. // The law gives the second-largest political party the mandate to appoint the chairman of this particular Committee. BHK, being the second-largest party, said they wouldn't appoint a replacement if Zohrabyan is voted out. QP MP Arthur: per rules, if BHK refuses to appoint a new candidate, the largest (QP) party will receive the mandate. // Parliament voted 78-4 to terminate Zohrabyan's chairmanship. BHK and LHK did not vote. BHK MP Zohrabyan: this termination was a Constitutional crime. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039245.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039264.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039304.html , https://factor.am/325132.html
Parliament votes: registering parties becomes easier / ideology instead of person / financial transparency
The goal of this reform is to have political parties that are more about ideology and less about an individual. The reform will boost internal democracy within parties; it will expand the powers of the Party Assembly. Parties will be required to add more anonymous voting mechanisms. The law also requires more financial transparency. The required membership to register a party is lowered from 800 to 300. Some of the public funding given to political parties will depend on the % of female members in the administrative boards. Parliament voted 99-1 to approve it. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039270.html , https://youtu.be/bPuZViCCCxo
Parliament votes: monthly fees towards soldiers' recovery are raised
Most workers pay a monthly 1000 Dram towards the Soldiers' Fund, which takes care of wounded soldiers and families of those who died. The govt found it necessary to raise the fee to cover thousands of new recipients. Here are the new fees and salary brackets: ֏1,500 for < ֏100k/month ֏3,000 for < ֏200k ֏5,500 for < ֏500k ֏8,500 for < ֏1 million ֏15,000 for > ֏1 million Parliament voted 89-0 to approve it. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039296.html
Parliament votes: ban on public smoking is delayed until 2022
The govt had adopted a law to ban smoking in public cafes and the public display of cigarettes in grocery shops. The ruling party wanted to delay parts of the bill that were set to go into effect in January, citing possible financial issues for businesses caused by the pandemic. QP MP: the cigarette industry pays $383 million to state coffers. Healthcare Ministry: it will be a mistake if you delay this bill for the sake of $10 million in tax revenues. Parliament voted 86-0 to delay the anti-smoking bill until 2022. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039295.html
Parliament votes: no tax on goods donated to Armenia
QP MP: When you donate a charitable product to the Republic of Armenia, you are exempt from customs duties and other tax payments, except for one payment, which we are trying to exempt with this bill as well. // Parliament voted 80-0 to approve it. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039297.html
how is the Judicial Branch doing?
The Supreme Court protects or punishes judges. It also handles complaints. It's separate from the Constitutional Court. bad boys 19 complaints against judges were heard, 14 of which were petitioned by Justice Ministry and 4 by Judicial Ethics Board. 10 judges ended up receiving disciplinary penalties, 3 received a warning, 3 were reprimanded, 2 were terminated, 4 were cleared. the system is overloaded 61 judges are handling 6470 felony cases. 86 judges handle 175,940 civil cases. 24 judges handle 17,390 administrative cases. The number of Arbitration cases rose from 3100 to 9900. finances This year, Supremes appointed 20 new judges. Supreme's budget remained the same this year. They returned ֏607 million in savings back to state coffers. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039249.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039284.html
anti-corruption: SIS busts an IRS agent
SIS says: IRS border inspector took a bribe from a citizen to help him avoid paying Millions of ֏ in import taxes by splitting a large load into smaller pieces, so each piece would fall below the taxable threshold. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039293.html
Police and Nature Ministry have set up additional checkpoints as part of measures against whitefish poaching in Sevan. 24/7 monitoring on all alleys leading to the lake. They will also travel across markets to catch contraband whitefish. Why? It's the egg-laying season. Fishing is banned for now. The legally-allowed fishing tools were temporarily removed from the lake. https://youtu.be/8ZyRGpEazMQ https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039339.html
...the rest should have access to other jobs. There is an opportunity now because many businesses operate remotely. Call Center workers don't have to visit an office. Businesses would rather pay less to hire a rural remote worker than more to hire someone in a Yerevan office. The High Tech Ministry has an ongoing program to teach IT to 5,000 citizens. We must help workers to expand their skillset. We're working on a program to allow a worker to quit the job, not worry about the food on the table, and have enough time for education and learning new skills. The villagers should ideally lease their smaller lands to large agricultural producers," said Economy Minister Qerobyan. Full interview: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039319.html
State regulators bust another price-fixing ring: fruit mafia
Yesterday, the Economic Competition Committee busted the egg industry's alleged price-fixing and anti-competitive practices. Today they say a similar collision was observed in the orange, mandarin, kiwi, lemon industry. The companies Best Fruits, Art-Fruits, and Promout were slapped with a ֏39 million in penalties for colluding to raise the prices for the products that had an increased demand during the pandemic period. http://www.competition.am/.../resources/Vo370_17_12_2020.pdf https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039269.html
Lenovo slapped for "anti-competitive practice"
The Economic Competition Committee heard a petition filed by Oazis Computer company against Lenovo. The latter was issued a warning for anti-competitive behavior. Public Regulator: "Lenovo" company had the ability to influence the process of importing Lenovo computers to Armenia from non-EAEU trade bloc countries. "Lenovo" took steps to reduce the import of Lenovo computers from non-EAEU states, by discriminating against Oazis Computer importer. Lenovo is given a month to correct the issue and fix the requirement and standards related paperwork. (Facebook next?) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039333.html
Artsakh will also increase childbirth benefits
First child: ֏300k instead of ֏100k Second child: ֏300k instead of ֏200k (or ֏500k if one parent is disabled) As for monthly child care subsidy payments, it goes from ֏15k to ֏27k until the child turns 2. https://factor.am/325487.html
700 Artsakh families continue to live in 40 settlements of Gegharquniq province. The All Armenia Fund (HimnaDram.org) has provided food and household items to 241 families ahead of New Year. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039313.html
daily life in Syunik bordering villages Shurnukh and Vorotan
to keep on pushing. Many people visit this sub and post after a bad loss. I’ve been there ... we all have. What’s going to happen is after 5-10-20-50 days of not gambling you’re going to feel so accomplished that you’ll have the urge to reward yourself by playing a few hands or betting a couple bucks (or thousands) on the Super Bowl. You need to remind yourself why you are here. Take control of your future and your finances. When you are gambling the difference between $1 and $1000 means nothing as you are so numb to monetary value. “What’s another $1000 bet considering I have already lost 40 times that?” is something I would say to myself before unloading on another game. I am not a financial advisor, but I have experience in economics, finance, and life and feel I can provide some insight as a recovering addict. My situation is a bit different so I will give some insight and feel it’s best to explain my situation. I’m 25 years old and live at home (COVID). I have lived on my own in the Big Apple and have seen both sides of life. One where your parents cover everything and one where you have daily and monthly expenses like rent, utilities, and food. Currently I’m lucky enough where I don’t have expenses, but being the dumbass I was, my expense was paying the bookie. I know many people don’t have the same luxury as I, but it doesn’t mean you can’t still save. I’ve given up the last 2 years of saving and instead gave into this disease. 1) first thing first, personal ban yourself from casinos or online sites. My vice was sports and I had a chat with my bookie and let him know I was struggling. We were able to settle the debt for about half of what I owed. Just ask, it can’t hurt. 2) before you can save you need to pay off whatever outstanding debt you have. Credit cards and fees will continue to build. Once these are at or near $0 you can begin the rebuild. I have (thankfully) never been in debt, but this is certainly where I would start if I was. 3) create a budget. A tight one, to the dollar. Mortgage? Phone? Car? Food? High level looking at the entire month, decide what you can spend and what you can save. 4) CONGRATS!!!! You are debt free. For whats it worth, I will consider phone bills and car payments for what they are, monthly expenses. Factor these into a budget. For some, this step might take 1 month or 10 years. Patience is key. 5) the first exciting part of this whole thing is quitting, the next is clearing of any debts, and now for the grand finale. You can now start to build wealth and add to your future. Depending on your financial security you can decide to add to your savings or opening an investing account (I use Fidelity). Investing in low risk ETFs will continue to gain and gain and gain. 6) if your company offers 401k and match, DO IT. I can’t stress this enough, it’s free money that you can’t touch. Over 3 years of working my 401k has absolutely ballooned. My company matches as well and I can’t withdraw, only add. It’s the perfect scenario for someone still learning how to control their financial future. 7) sit back and watch your money grow. Once you see gains in your investing accounts, you will become invested in learning about different ETFs that it will become a low risk way to “gamble”. Hope this helps. Be patient. The damage is done and the recovery will take some time. Use your new time wisely, you’ll have a lot of it. As someone who constantly bet on sports, I’d sometimes spend 6-7 hours a day watching college basketball games I normally wouldn’t care about or sweating doing research on how to make back the money I lost. Spend this time to learn new things, pick up a new hobby, and apply to new jobs/opportunities to advance your career and increase your salary. Most of all, be excited. Be excited about a life without lying to loved ones, chasing loses, owing people or institutions money. Be excited for a life of stability, even if it takes years to arrive at that point. Don’t let the past you define your future. It is never too late to recover. There will be a point where you’ve made so much progress you think you can go back as a changed person. You can’t. Use whatever you can to remind yourself. One thing I want to add. The most difficult part for me is dealing with the constant regret of losing money. My parents certainly think I’m better off than I am and my bank account could look far better. What helps me is thinking about how fast time flies and how fast you can rebuild if you set your mind to it. Another thing is not comparing myself to others. I always think about how far ahead my friends and classmates are, but in reality everyone deals with different vices. I’m not big into buying material things or smoking, but many people do. These cost money. A lot of it. You really don’t know what other things people are dealing with. I look at gambling as an investment gone wrong.
Hey everyone, I am a former Wall Street trader and quant researcher. When I was preparing for my own interviews, I have noticed the lack of accurate information and so I will be providing my own perspectives. One common pattern I see is people building their own algorithm by blindly fitting statistical methods such as moving averages onto data. I have published this elsewhere, but have copy pasted it entirely below for you to read to keep it in the spirit of the sub rules. Edit: Removed link.
What it was like trading on Wall Street
Right out of college, I began my trading career at an electronic hedge fund on Wall Street. Several friends pitched trading to me as being a more disciplined version of wallstreetbets that actually made money. After flopping several initial interviews, I was fortunate to land a job at a top-tier firm of the likes of Jane Street, SIG, Optiver and IMC. On my first day, I was instantly hooked. My primary role there was to be a market maker. To explain this, imagine that you are a merchant. Suppose you wanted to purchase a commodity such as an apple. You would need to locate an apple seller and agree on a fair price. Market makers are the middle-men that cuts out this interaction by being always willing to buy or sell at a given price. In finance lingo, this is called providing liquidity to financial exchanges. At any given moment, you should be confident to liquidate your position for cash. To give a sense of scale, tens of trillions in dollars are processed through these firms every year. My time trading has been one of the most transformative periods of my life. It not only taught me a lot of technical knowledge, but it also moulded me to be a self-starter, independent thinker, and hard worker. I strongly recommend anyone that loves problem solving to give trading a shot. You do not need a mathematics or finance background to get in. The trading culture is analogous to professional sports. It is a zero sum game where there is a clear defined winner and loser — you either make or lose money. This means that both your compensation and job security is highly dependent on your performance. For those that are curious, the rough distribution of a trader’s compensation based on performance is a tenth of the annual NBA salary. There is a mystique about trading in popular media due to the abstraction of complicated quantitative models. I will shed light on some of the fundamental principles rooted in all trading strategies, and how they might apply to you.
One way traders make money is through an arbitrage or a risk free trade. Suppose you could buy an apple from Sam for $1, and then sell an apple to Megan at $3. A rational person would orchestrate both legs of these trades to gain $2 risk free. Arbitrages are not only found in financial markets. The popular e-commerce strategy of drop-shipping is a form of arbitrage. Suppose you find a tripod selling on AliExpress at $10. You could list the same tripod on Amazon for $20. If someone buys from you, then you could simply purchase the tripod off AliExpress and take home a neat $10 profit. The same could be applied to garage sales. If you find a baseball card for $2 that has a last sold price on EBay for $100, you have the potential to make $98. Of course this is not a perfect arbitrage as you face the risk of finding a buyer, but the upside makes this worthwhile.
Positive expected value bets
Another way traders make money is similar to the way a casino stacks the odds in their favour. Imagine you flip a fair coin. If it lands on heads you win $3, and if it lands on tails you lose $1. If you flip the coin only once, you may be unlucky and lose the dollar. However in the long run, you are expected to make a positive profit of $1 per coin flip. This is referred to as a positive expected value bet. Over the span of millions of transactions, you are almost guaranteed to make a profit. This exact principle is why you should never gamble in casino games such as roulette. These games are all negative expected value bets, which guarantees you to lose money over the long run. Of course there are exceptions to this, such as poker or card counting in black jack. The next time you walk into a casino, make a mental note to observe the ways it is designed to keep you there for as long as possible. Note the lack of windows and the maze like configurations. Even the free drinks and the cheap accommodation are all a farce to keep you there.
Relative pricing is a great strategy to use when there are two products that have clear causal relationships. Let us consider an apple and a carton of apple juice. Suppose there have a causal relationship where the carton is always $9 more expensive than the apple. The apple and the carton is currently trading at $1 and $10 respectively. If the price of the apple goes up to $2, the price is not immediately reflected on the carton. There will always be a time lag. It is also important to note that there is no way we can determine if the apple is trading at fair value or if its overpriced. So how do we take advantage of this situation? If we buy the carton for $10 and sell the apple for $2, we have essentially bought the ‘spread’ for $8. The spread is fairly valued at $9 due to the causal relationship, meaning we have made $1. The reason high frequency trading firms focus so much on latency in the nanoseconds is to be the first to scoop up these relative mispricing. This is the backbone for delta one strategies. Common pairs that are traded against each other includes ETFs and their inverse counterpart, a particular stock against an ETF that contains the stock, or synthetic option structures.
Correlations are mutual connections between two things. When they trend in the same direction they are said to have a positive correlation, and the vice versa is true for negative correlations. A popular example of positive correlation is the number of shark attacks with the number of ice-cream sales. It is important to note that shark attacks do not cause ice-cream sales. Often times there are no intuitive reason for certain correlations, but they still work. The legendary Renaissance Technologies sifted through petabytes of historical data to find profitable signals. For instance, good morning weather in a city tended to predict an upward movement in its stock exchange. One could theoretically buy stock on the opening and sell at noon to make a profit. One important piece of advice is to disregard any retail trader selling a course to you, claiming that they have a system. These are all scams. At best, these are bottom of the mill signals that are hardly profitable after transaction costs. It is also unlikely that you have the system latency, trading experience or research capabilities to do this on your own. It is possible, but very difficult.
Another common strategy traders rely on is mean reversion trends. In the options world the primary focus is purchasing volatility when it is cheap compared to historical values, and vice versa. Buying options is essentially synonymous with buying volatility. Of course, it is not as simple as this so don’t go punting your savings on Robinhood using this strategy. For most people, the most applicable mean reversion trend is interest rates. These tend to fluctuate up and down depending on if the central banks want to stimulate saving or spending. As global interest rates are next to zero or negative, it may be a good idea to lock in this low rate for your mortgages. Again, consult with a financial advisor before you do anything.
It’s June 18th, 2017. There are three days before the National Hockey League’s first expansion draft in seventeen years, and the boardroom of T-Mobile arena, the future home of the Vegas Golden Knights, is buzzing. Months of scouting, speculation on who might be available, and discussions about possible trades are finally nearing their fruition. Bill Foley, the team owner, steps out to grab another cup of coffee when a thought suddenly strikes him. He works it around in his brain for a second, then runs back into the boardroom. A pro scout who focuses on goaltending is making his pitch to General Manager George McPhee. “...Well, if we don’t take Grabovski, Jaroslav Halak is available as a potential backu-“ “Don’t you DARE speak that bastard’s name to me!” McPhee screams. He quickly snaps out of the PTSD flashback that the goalie’s name inspired and moves on. “We’ll take the centre from them and... what about that Rangers backup instead? That Raanta guy?” On the whiteboard behind them is a set of handshake deals that they have made, pending registration with the National Hockey League's office.
Anaheim trades: Shea Theodore for Expansion Draft Considerations. (Clayton Stoner) Columbus trades: 2017 1st, 2019 2nd, jack johnson, for Expansion Draft Considerations (William Karlsson) Florida trades: Reilly Smith for Expansion Draft Considerations (Jonathan Marchessault) and a 5th round pick Minnesota trades: Alex Tuch for Expansion Draft Considerations (Erik Haula) and a 3rd round pick New York trades: 2017 1st round pick, 2019 2nd round pick for Expansion Draft Considerations (Mikhail Grabovski) Tampa Bay trades: Nikita Gusev, 2017 2nd, and 2018 4th for Expansion Draft Considerations (Jason Garrison) Winnipeg trades: 2017 1st round pick and 2019 3rd round pick for Expansion Draft Considerations (Chris Thorburn) and Columbus 1st
Foley interrupts the goaltending conversation - this can't wait. "George, can I talk to you quickly?" They take a sidebar. "George, I just had a thought. These deals you made - you just traded 'expansion draft considerations,' right?" "Yes, we'll select the player that they want us to." "But what if you don't? What if you just take whoever you want? Would it be against the rules?" "I... well...no. Technically we could do that. But it would be dishonest and would make everyone furious at us." "So? I didn’t buy an NHL team to make friends. I bought an NHL team to win a Stanley Cup, and also to let people know that I went to West Point. Did you know I went to West Point?” “Yes Bill” “I trust you George. Now go out there and get me a championship.”
Tensions are high in the green room on June 21st. General managers are walking in and out to greet and chit-chat with George McPhee and Bill Foley, the newest members of their exclusive fraternity of NHL executives. They laugh and exchange stories: Joe Sakic tells them about the gas leak in the Pepsi Centre that they noticed as soon as the season was over; Peter Chiarelli asks them to give him a call if they draft a right handed defensive defenceman (because that Draisaitl kid isn't really working out); John Chayka asks them if they're hiring. McPhee is having a hard time keeping things light and friendly, knowing that he's about to betray all of these men. Just submitting an offer sheet is enough to get you kicked out of the GM Secret Santa, let alone dishonesty at this level. Gary Bettman walks into the green room excitedly. “Bill, George, I am so excited for us to get going. Everyone in this building is so energized, I even just saw Evgeny Kuznetsov doing some smelling salts in the bathroom!" ~ The Las Vegas Hard Rock Hotel and Casino is packed with new Vegas Golden Knights fans. The award show itself is highlighted by the best NHL.com intern-written jokes that unpaid can buy. Host Joe Manganiello is dutifully following the Jack Johnson model on stage: he might be bombing out there but boy is he eating up minutes. After Brent Burns finishes his Norris trophy victory speech, and the PA quickly wipes the crumbs and beard hair off the microphone, the time has come for Vegas’ first picks. "From the Anaheim Ducks, Vegas picks…” McPhee looks out at the smiling faces in the crowd. He sees Bob Murray, sitting with his plus-one for the evening (Randy Carlyle). He sees Jim Rutherford trying to turn his blaring ringtone off with his screen brightness turned up all the way. He sees Lou Lamoriello, sitting with a slightly less murderous look in his eyes than usual. He knows that the friendships he has fostered with all of these extremely normal and competent people will never recover from what he is about to do. He takes a deep breath. “Josh Manson!" The Vegas fans go wild. The attached trade is announced too: they have picked up Shea Theodore in exchange for “draft considerations.” The general managers’ faces contort with fury as it dawns on them what has happened. Things only get worse as McPhee and Foley continue to announce their picks. Instead of taking Erik Haula from the Wild, they take Matt Dumba. And they still get Alex Tuch. Instead of taking Mikhail Grabovski from the Isles, they take Brock Nelson. And they still get a 1st and a 2nd. Instead of taking Jason Garrison from the Lightning, they take Yanni Gourde. And they still get Nikita Gusev. ~ After the show, twenty-nine general managers storm the green room with murder in their eyes. Bettman tries to deflate the situation. “Good evening gentlemen. I understand you’re upset, bu- Wait, where’s Jim Benning?” “He got stuck in the revolving door somehow. But we have him on speakerphone.” Benning's voice bellows out of Pierre Dorian's team-issued Motorola Razr. “That was an embarrassment! A mockery! An insult to everything that hockey is supposed to be! Who even wrote those 'jokes' anyway?! And by the way, the expansion draft was bullshit too!” Bob Murray’s face is an angrier shade of red than usual. “George you scumbag, we had a fucking deal! We only traded you Shea Theodore so that you would take Clayton Stoner!” McPhee says “Well actually, Bob, the trade was made for “draft considerations.” And I promise you we really considered taking Stoner.” The room erupts in anger again. Garth Snow is irate as well: "You bastard, how could you take Nelson?! Resigning Tavares would've been a sure thing if you had taken Grabovski instead! I can't imagine how this franchise's cap situation could possibly be any worse!" Lou Lamoriello smirks. Bettman sighs and tries to be diplomatic. “Gentlemen, I’m sorry, but he’s right. It says in the transcripts of the official trade calls that the trades were made purely for ‘considerations’, not for the selection of specific players. There’s nothing we can do about that. That being said, George, per the NHL’s licensing agreement with EA Sports we will need to confiscate a few of your phones.” The managers walk out of the room grumbling. On the way out, a confused Dale Tallon says “There's one thing I don't understand: If George went back on all those other deals, why didn’t he take Alex Petrovic from us instead of that Marchessault guy? And he still took that cap dump Reilly Smith from us too! What an idiot.” ~ The Knights’ players were already fired up by their respective teams’ willingness to let them go – now they’re extra motivated by everyone else in the league hating their guts.
Jonathan Marchessault – William Karlsson – Reilly Smith David Perron – Brock Nelson – Yanni Gourde Tomas Nosek – Vadim Shipachyov – James Neal Ryan Carpenter – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Alex Tuch William Carrier Brayden McNabb – Matt Dumba Nate Schmidt – Josh Manson Shea Theodore – Colin Miller Jack Johnson Marc-Andre Fleury Antti Raanta
They claim the President's Trophy and the Stanley Cup in each of their first three seasons. The league's general managers conspire to exact revenge on these scoundrels, and all agree that Marc Bergevin should offersheet their best young players, a plan that immediately backfires when Bergevin inadvertently saves Vegas considerable negotiating time and helps them lock up their core at reasonable numbers. The Knights later find a loophole in the salary cap that allows them to add high-salary free agents seemingly at will. After they sweep through the bubble playoffs in 2020, it becomes clear that no other team can compete with them, and TV ratings hit a dismal low. Amid financial uncertainty caused by COVID-19, the National Hockey League officially folds in late 2020. Agent Allan Walsh, desperately trying to secure spots in the KHL for his stunned clients, soberly sums up the feelings of the hockey world: https://preview.redd.it/q9p41mrmnzv51.png?width=560&format=png&auto=webp&s=5db5d08168a2c897b4f57e8473f73612f191398c (Thank you for reading, it's been awhile!)
Singapore expat jobs under threat in recession, local hire push
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-expat-jobs-under-threat-in-recession-local-hire-push Singapore has long been the city of choice for Western expats wanting an easy entree into Asia. Clean, efficient, with low tax rates, it's often seen as rivalling Hong Kong, especially with that city hit by street protests and unrest over China's new national security law. Yet just when Singapore should be a magnet for global talent, some recruiters say the barriers to entry are mounting. The city is facing the worst recession in its history, forcing a rethink for some firms on expansion and hiring plans. Alongside soaring unemployment has come a spike in rhetoric against foreigners, seen by some Singaporeans as taking jobs from locals. An experienced nurse from New Zealand is finding out how tough it can be. She seemed, on paper at least, the ideal expat - arriving with her partner right before Covid-19. But 11 months and over 200 failed applications later, she says she's on the verge of going home, unable to land a work pass. She was told by companies that they have a quota and the quota is met, she said, asking not to be identified for fear of jeopardising her partner's work permit. When attempts to volunteer at hospitals were similarly rejected, she said she felt like she didn't belong. The uncertain job prospects, online commentary and stricter conditions risk making Singapore a less welcoming destination just as the city-state needs foreign investment the most. And as workplaces clamp down on hiring it could further limit the options for expats who have long seen a stint in Asia as an important and lucrative experience. The Singapore government has added to their angst by taking steps to promote local hiring, raising concern that it will come at the expense of expats. Earlier this month, it put 47 companies on a watch list for suspected discriminatory hiring practices. The list includes banks, fund managers and consulting firms that may have pre-selected foreigners for jobs or not given Singaporeans a fair chance. This adds to the 240 companies already under scrutiny. The names of the firms weren't disclosed. And in May, it tightened the framework that governs employment passes for foreigners, increasing the minimum monthly salary to S$3,900 and further expanding rules requiring employers to advertise job openings to locals first. The government said on Wednesday it plans to raise that salary threshold further. "I wouldn't be surprised if there was a contraction in the number of visas issued because the demand for foreigners is going to be less" in the near term, said Hays regional director for Singapore Grant Torrens, citing the sharp contraction as the main driver. The role of foreign workers became a key election issue this year, with several opposition candidates campaigning on claims that overseas talent is taking local jobs. The Workers' Party, which clinched more seats than ever, published a manifesto that included tightening employment pass approvals. "The only reason we have foreigners here is to give an extra wind in our sails when the opportunity is there," Minister of Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan said in a televised election debate in July. "Now we are in a storm, and we need to shed ballast." Dr Balakrishnan's office said in response to Bloomberg queries on the comment that there will be a disproportionate impact on the foreign workforce in a downturn. Foreign workers on employment passes - the sort issued to highly skilled workers as opposed to work permits for blue-collar jobs - typically comprise around 5 per cent of the total workforce. Yet among top managers and professionals in some key sectors, the ratio of foreigners can be much higher. Non-Singaporeans made up 57 per cent of senior management roles across the financial services sector, the government said in August. Andrew Zee, team lead for financial services at Selby Jennings, said some of his job candidates were recently denied permits - a first for him in more than four years - though they were later approved on appeal. Sirva Inc, which owns Allied Pickfords, said inquiries from people wanting to move to Singapore in the first seven months of the year were down 23 per cent from the same period in 2019, according to Amanda Jones, senior vice-president of sales and account management. Ms Jones doesn't expect to see expat executives coming to Singapore at pre-Covid numbers until 2022 at best, especially given travel curbs and the recession. EXPATS LEAVING The shift is starting to be felt in the real estate market. Ella Sherman, an associate executive sales director at Knight Frank in Singapore who specialises in expat housing, says she normally signs about four rental agreements a month this time of year. Now she's lucky to secure one, and knows of several clients heading home. Beyond the economic woes and the pandemic lies an unease over foreigners in the country of just 5.7 million people. This has surfaced in public calls, often on social media, for more hiring of locals. When a Facebook post targeting foreign executives at US$215 billion investment giant Temasek Holdings went viral this month, chief executive officer Ho Ching responded with a post of her own describing it as "a cowardly act of hate". JOB CUTS Companies are taking pains to describe their efforts to retain Singaporean jobs. When Millennium Hotels and Resorts laid off 159 employees this month, it noted that the move lifted its "core" Singaporean workforce to 69 per cent. After casino operator Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) reportedly cut 2,000 jobs last month, the Ministry of Manpower issued a statement saying the majority of affected workers were foreigners. "After the retrenchment exercise, RWS has a stronger Singaporean core," the ministry said. Even expats abroad are feeling the pinch. One worker was overseas and between jobs when the pandemic struck. Though he quickly found a new position, he said his employment pass submission has been rejected several times with no explanation. He's now stuck in Europe paying rent for his empty home in Singapore, unable to return until his visa gets approved. He declined to be identified for fear of jeopardising his application. He said the rising anti-foreigner rhetoric was equally worrisome. For some, the social tensions were brought to the fore when a few expats were caught breaching government-imposed lockdowns by drinking and mingling outdoors without masks in May. The incident sparked an ugly debate on social media and prompted a minister to caution against the "visceral reaction" by locals. The offenders were fined and banned from working in Singapore, as were 134 others over May and June. GREEN CARDS To be sure, some politicians are urging calm. Singaporeans want assurances that the government will continue to create opportunities and provide fair treatment, but a vast majority "understand that staying open and connected is very important to Singapore", Manpower Minister Josephine Teo said on Wednesday. Singapore isn't alone in fighting for local jobs. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order this month barring federal agencies from replacing citizens or green card holders with foreign workers. And the city-state's status as a finance hub ensures it will always be magnet for foreign talent. Citadel, the hedge fund run by billionaire Ken Griffin, announced this week it's opening a Singapore office, as did Sun Life Financial, Canada's second-biggest insurer. ATTRACTIVE HUB "Singapore remains an attractive destination," said Rahul Sen, the global head of private wealth management at Boyden, an executive search firm. "New businesses that were thinking of setting up in Hong Kong to attract Greater China wealth are thinking of setting up shop in Singapore." Even so, the avenues for many are narrowing. The nurse from New Zealand has started reaching out to healthcare providers back home. They're eager to hire so she may head back. "Singapore is an amazing city, and we hoped that if we stayed long enough, things would change," she said. "But the longer it takes, the further away it seems."
Men still want to get married. Men are now paying for companionship instead of dating. The only thing that changed is women now want a man who has 6 figure salary, 6 foot tall, 6 inch penis, and 6 felonies.
Women are like a casino. They often sell dreams for cash. Hence marriage. Whatever the game or the name. The rules are always the same
Big government solutions? "'Man'ifesto" is the new "Her-story", you heard it here first.
"Men need to step up to the plate and start acting like men." "Men need to stop being so selfish and put someone else first." "Men are stuck in childhood and need to grow-up." "Men can't handle the fact that women are strong and independent nowadays." "Men are being radicalized on the internet to hate women." Did I miss any of the tired and worn-out excuses?
I'm all for marriage when: women, legislators and feminists: Establish a prenuptial agreement, that is worth the paper it's printed on. Pass legislation criminalizing false accusations. Pass legislation for redress, so men can sue women who falsely accuse them. Pass legislation that provides for the rights of fathers in paternity. Require that universal genetic testing be completed upon the birth of a child. Pass legislation for either: A. Enacting universal selective service (both sexes). B. Abolishing selective service entirely. Pass legislation for equal wages, based on work completed for the SAME type of jobs. Dangerous work does NOT equal cushy office jobs. Abolish ALL family courts, in order to establish a more equitable system. A system that will truly be in the best interest of the child. 25% of monies collected will be held in trust for the child, payable at age 18. Abolish ALL quotas. The best candidate gets the job. Establish policy in health and wellness research equitably between specific sex health diseases. Indefinitely, additional funds are to be provided for mens health, until the gap in mortality rates between the sexes is closed. Establish a universal retirement date for Social Security. I could go on. Once all these are met, the barriers to marriage will be eliminated.
Actually I would like it if you went on. Better still do a comprehensive, concise as possible list of fair demands. I would print it off. Thank you.
Maybe a "Man"ifesto is needed.
Some are ready to celebrate, others recommend caution.
All because of feminism -- all because. Women are inherently control freaks, like all people who are insanely neurotic. True men simply cannot abide being in a subordinate position to a control freak. It strips us of our dignity. It's demoralizing. So, increasingly, men will abandon the ranks until the women in charge have nobody left under them. It's a slow bleed because there are so many Millennial soycucks that were raised on a steady diet of women-r-wonderful and some of them have to get burned multiple times before they start to clue in to the fact that it really is all women.
So I just called the National Suicide Hotline and after a roughly 10 min, completely one sided conversation, the rep advised me to “Leave it all up to God” I explained to him that I am an atheist and have zero interest in religious dogma. He hung up... For anyone whose curious, a brief summary about why I felt compelled to call... I suffer from: -Major, Treatment Resistant Depression -Severe Social Anxiety Disorder -Avoidant Personality Disorder (Borderline Schizoid) -PTSD from my last “relationship” (2003-2006) -Minor OCD Treatments: -I’ve been in and out of therapy since I was 10 years old (30 now) and it’s never even come close to helping me. -I’ve been on virtually every single anti depressant, mood stabilizer and/or MAOI on the market...Again, nothing has come even relatively close to helping. -I was supposed to have ECT back in April, but obviously can’t for the foreseeable future because of Covid-19. Living Situation: -I live with my super neurotic 87 year old grandma who is prone to temper tantrums and other assorted fits of neurosis on a daily basis. -I only live with her because I can’t afford rent and she can’t live by herself anymore. -My home town is a trashy, drug infested ghetto where the only people who make any kind of money are those with rich families or women who sleep their way up the corporate ladder. (Sexism aside, it’s a reality) -Everyone my age is either married, a struggling single parent/deadbeat dad, alcoholic or a heroin addict. Education: (please understand that this is NOT a humble brag) -3 years of Community College: Associates -3 years of Uni: Bachelors in “Social Sciences” -Both degrees = a $30k “thank you for coming” certificate. Employment: -I work security on the grave shift at a steadily failing Casino because I “lack the personality” for Day Shift. -Said Casino is the biggest employer in the area and to quit would make zero sense. -I’m not NEARLY Republican enough to be a security guard, so naturally I don’t get along with anyone at work. -I make just under $20/hr and will likely never find a job that can even come close to matching this salary. (And it’s still not enough to live on with my bills and student loans) -The only way to land a decent job in security is to be either a retired cop or ex military. Social Life: -From about 17-25 I did nothing but burn bridges which I do regret, but living in a tiny area means that everyone knows everyone and that nobody forgives or forgets. -Virtually everyone in my area is a redneck stereotype that I want nothing to do with. -I’m a 5’6” 2/10 virgin so obviously not good enough for a relationship. -If a woman in my area is single, she’s either a minor, single mother, morbidly obese, a drug addict/alcoholic, mentally unstable or a lesbian. -I’m NOT interested in ending up with some 40+ year old single mother looking for a personal ATM. (I can barely afford to support myself) -Most of my friends are married and the ones who aren’t are rich. -I don’t drink, smoke or enjoy going out. -My schedule wouldn’t allow me to have any sort of a social life anyway. Future? I have absolutely 0 interest in living to see 40.
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Using the monies deducted from our account to pay bills and staff, as well as the flow of time in game, I calculated how much each staff member makes in addition to how much money we will be losing on such items. This rundown will, for the most part be presented in table format and will be separated business by business (with the exception of MC businesses as all their costs are rolled into one. MEASURE OF IN GAME TIME: This table shows the flow of time in game against real time. All measures of time beyond this table will be referring to in game time. Additionally, all currencies shown below should be read as in game currency.
IN GAME TIME
REAL WORLD TIME
MECHANIC: We pay the mechanic $1,000 a day. His income is as follows:
Weekly Salary = $7,000
Monthly Salary = $28,000
Annual Salary = $336,000
EXECUTIVE ASSISTANT: The executive assistant earns $300 a day. His/Her income is as follows:
Weekly Salary = $2,100
Monthly Salary = $8,400
Annual Salary = $100,800
PENTHOUSE STAFF & UTILITIES: $1,300.00 a day is spent on this item.
Weekly Expenditure = $9,100
Monthly Expenditure = $36,400
Annual Expenditure = $436,800
ARCADE STAFF AND UTILITIES: The arcade is a bit more complex in estimating as this business generates legitimate profit. As a result the table below will show expenditure as well as gross and net profit. THESE FIGURES ONLY CATER FOR A FULLY UPGRADED ARCADE WITH ALL MACHINES PURCHASED.
Assuming that 25% of expenditure goes to utilities we can estimate our staff ( Wendy and Jimmy) to together earn an estimated $126,000 annually. i.e. $63,000 each. The underground staff are not included as these members should be paid from the casino heist. NIGHTCLUB STAFF & UTILITIES: This table regards a fully upgraded nightclub and assumes that the nightclub runs at full popularity continually.
The nightclub has 14 staff members: 1 bouncer, 1 cashier charging admission, 5 security guards inside, 4 bartenders, the 2 dancers and 1 bathroom attendant. Assuming that 25% of expenditure goes to utilities, and that wages are divided equally, each staff member earns an estimated $36,000 annually. This does not include Tony Prince, Lazlow or the resident DJ. These members are part of the club but what exactly their wages are is uncertain. Neither the security underground, nor the warehouse technicians are included as these members should be paid from the illegal ventures. BUNKER STAFF AND UTILITIES: $9,400 a day is spent on this item
Weekly Expenditure = $65,800
Monthly Expenditure = $263,200
Annual Expenditure = $3,158,400
The fully upgraded bunker hires 11 staff members: 8 manufactures, 2 security guards and 1 mechanic for the MOC and other bunker vehicles. Assuming that 25% of expenditure goes to utilities, and that wages are paid to the staff in equal amounts, each member of staff earns an estimated $215,345 annually. MC BUSINESSES STAFF AND UTILITIES: For all 5 fully upgraded MC businesses expenditure is as follows. Daily Expenditure = $24,000.00 Weekly Expenditure = $168,000.00 Monthly Expenditure = $672,000.00 Annual Expenditure = $8,064,000.00 Altogether, 40 persons are involved in the manufacturing process across the board. While 1 guard is assigned to each business. Assuming that 25% of expenditure goes to utilities, and that wages are paid to the staff in equal amounts, each member of staff earns an estimated $134,000 annually. TLDR: OVERALL EXPENDITURE DAILY = $38,500 WEEKLY = $269,500 MONTHLY = $1,078,000 ANNUAL = $12,936,000 (this figure is not a true representation as a player cannot be an MC President and a CEO at the same time) This estimate assumes:
That income taxes, property taxes and corporate taxes are not taken.
That all wages are equally split among staff members
That 25% of all expenditure accounts for utilities
This concludes my fiscal report thank you for your time. The floor is now open for all questions, comments, criticisms etc.
In May/6/2020, before the "big bust" that got BHK leader Tsarukyan in trouble, the regulators had audited his Shangri La casino and found violations. The Casino was given time to fix the problems. Later, after Tsarukyan's alleged voter bribery and financial crimes were revealed, his casino was implicated in a criminal case. Today the Finance Ministry revoked the casino's license for failing to pay fees for 2020Q3. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/192177
Regulators audited the Electric Networks of Armenia...
... and issued a $21,000 fine. The company routinely overcharged consumers by writing higher usage numbers in the books, likely due to an error. Other problems were found. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/192145
BHK plans to "defend Armenia's traditions"
BHK leader Tsarukyan has instructed BHK's youth wing to organize a campaign against the upcoming Education Ministry reform that will merge Armenian Church subject with Armenian History in schools. Tsarukyan called it an attack on Armenian values. The Ministry says having it as a separate subject makes no sense, but schools will have flexibility.
BHK will also protest against the upcoming education reforms that will help children better protect themselves against pedophiles. BHK and other hardline traditionalists believe it'll teach sexual materials to children. The govt denies it, saying the education is more like "don't take candy from a stranger's van". https://news.am/arm/news/590348.html
After the 2018 evolution, it was revealed that the former administrations generously distributed diplomatic passports to their friends. Kocharyan's and Serj's entire family line, singer Sirusho, grandchildren, etc. received the privilege. After the evolution, 395 such passports were revoked, while 762 new were issued.
The full list of owners is still considered a secret because "it contains classified information". Journalists want to get their hands on the list to make sure MFA isn't doing the same shenanigans. MFA responded saying "the passports were issued according to law." https://factor.am/267065.html
...doesn't like the fact that Turkey's Erdogan wants to convert the Hagia Sophia museum-church into a mosque. Greek politicians proposed converting Ataturk's house-museum in Thessaloniki into a museum dedicated to the Greek Genocide. The Hagio Sophia's topic was brought up in the Armenian Parliament today, with an MP expressing his dissatisfaction. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1021147.html
stirring the pot in 3... 2... 1...
System of a Down drummer Dolmayan caused some noise after criticizing the "Black Lives Matter" movement on his Instagram page. He isn't happy with the "media coverage, sensationalism, and the riots." Possible context: The recent defacement of an Armenian Genocide Memorial in Colorado has rubbed some Armenians the wrong way. It was addressed by the White House. http://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/282793/
CNN documentary: What it's like to visit a country [Artsakh] that doesn't officially exist
Breaking news. The govt has approved a bill that will grant the Healthcare Ministry a full authority over all private and public medical centers across Armenia during Emergency situations. "It's needed to make the fight against pandemic more efficient," said the govt. The bill needs Parliamentary approval. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1021190.html
Rebel leader is captured during a tense standoff
A young woman had a confrontation with a policeman about COVID rules. It appears she didn't have an ID on her, attempted to leave the scene, and when told about ID's requirement, she said, "I don't care about the law and the Emergency Taskforce's order." The police dragged her to a police station while she screamed. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=355693375398332 , https://youtu.be/zTAoVuBzEU8
The debt as of January 1st of 2020 vs 2019... Foreign: $5.7bln vs $5.5bln Internal: $1.7bln vs $1.4bln The debt to GDP ratio is expected to rise due to COVID. It was earlier predicted at 57%. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1021116.html
New rules to reduce corruption in social aid departments
Right now the same public office accepts petitions for aid submitted by seniors, before deciding whether grant it. This opens the door for corruption. Some workers would ask for a bribe to approve the aid. The govt decided to separate the decision-makers. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/192025
The utility commission authorized TEAM to broadcast TV and radio over cable. TEAM was formed after UCOM's founder left UCOM and founded TEAM. https://hetq.am/hy/article/119212
Monitoring the construction quality
Gegharquniq had 103 subsidized infrastructure upgrades last year. 23 were unfinished because the govt refused to accept them due to poor quality. 5 of them were road repair upgrades, 4 of which have since fixed the problems. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1021175.html
Russian tech giant and UN to help Yerevan w/traffic
Yandex tech giant's experts have been examining traffic in Yerevan center, near the Circular Park, to see how traffic patterns change based on location, time, holidays. Several roads were examined. Some had 45km/h speed one way, but much slower in the opposite direction. Isahakyan Street was the slowest with speeds dropping to 4km/h. Yandex's data is sent to two Russia-based companies for a further examination before it's sent to Yerevan municipality. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/192182
USAID gave the Education Ministry $825,000 for a project. Fewer disabled kids will be left out of schools and be forced to attend special centers away from peers or families. Disability ramps will be built in some schools. 56 schools will be renovated with accommodations. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1021107.html
Last time he scored a goal but the team lost. This time, while playing against Parma, he scored a goal and gave a pass that led to the second and victorious goal. Roma 2:1 Parma. Sofa Score declared Heno the best player of the entire match with an 8.8 score. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/192152
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Disclaimer & Terminology
1) The accused are innocent until proven guilty in the court of law, even if they sound guilty. 2) Currency in Armenian ֏ unless specified otherwise. 3) NSS/SIS/SOC = law enforcement agencies. QP = Civil Contract Party. LHK = Bright Armenia Party. BHK = Prosperous Armenia Party. HHK = Republican Party. 4) ARCHIVE of older posts by Idontknowmuch: PART 1 ; PART 2 ; PART 3 ; PART 4 ; PART 5. 4) ARCHIVE of older posts by Armeniapedia.
The Capitalist Fallacy at the Core of the Claim that NY Pays More in Federal Taxes than it Gets Back
It is impossible to discuss politics on Reddit without a mainstream team blue Democrat bringing up the idea that blue states pay more in Federal taxes than they receive in Federal revenue, and that therefore the points made by those in Red States are meaningless. Which is true, depending how you massage the figures. But it ignores where all that tax revenue they are bragging about comes from. New York State is basically the NYC metro area stapled onto an upstate area the size and makeup of West Virginia. NYC is what makes it a blue state, NYC is what makes it a rich net payor state. In any given year in NYC, the securities industry amounts to around 22% of wages paid with an average salary of $360,000. Add to that much of the service sectors, healthcare sectors, fashion industry, etc, that exists in NYC primarily to service these securities industry finance Bro desires; and the real estate industry that pushes prices ever higher thanks to those finance bro salaries (though admittedly that would be too much effort to quantify). Do the math and it becomes obvious: NYC is rich because it's the location of the national casino, drawing capital from the countryside to be swapped, bought, sold, lost and moved around like poker chips; and the house always gets its cut. New Yorkers declaring that they don't need the rest of you freeloaders is no different from the boss and the accountant at a company declaring that since they make more money at the company than the workers, they are more talented and more important and don't need the workers at all. Tldr: New York pays more in taxes because of an economic system dependent on the finance industry, which produces little to no human happiness.
All of Bolsonaro's Men - An Explanation on how Brazil's Current Politics and why a Cabinet Meeting is now on Youtube (Part 2)
This is part 2 out of 3 explaining Brazil's current political crisis. This section is the first portion of Bolsonaro's April 22nd cabinet meeting. This meeting was one of the last meetings attended by Sérgio Moro. This was a full cabinet meeting, held April 22nd in the Presidential Palace. I will first highlight some key things said, and then make a small analysis of what this means. Translation is mine. I have abridged a few transcriptions. Bolsonaro is fully translated, but the ministers are not, as some of the topics held in the meeting are not directly related to the current investigation. The first topic of the meeting was the creation of a recovery plan, the Pró-Brasil. First minister to talk is PauloGuedes. "The government is broke! In all levels. Cities, governors, and the federal government. What did we do? We signalled the opposite. We deleveraged public banks, reduced debts, lowered interest rates, and Brazil was about to recover. So if we launch a public investment process is the same talking point as always, "reduce regional inequality" PauloGuedes follows the Chicago school of economic thought, and has supported reductions in Brazilian government spending as much as possible, being one of the forces behind Brazil's new pension plan. "It looks good on paper, but it's the same thing Lula and Dilma had been doing. If we want to end like them, we do this". This is followed by some more detailed breakdowns of government investments, and Guedes defending how the government can't spend to leave the Corona recession, but it also has to help the previous economy recover. Jair Bolsonaro then criticizes the media, and how they twist his words to make his aides disagree and fight. Mainstream media criticism has been a key point of Bolsonaro's government. OnyxLorenzoni, Bolsonaro's chief of staff adds that they received 36 government projects that were mid construction and halted under Dilma's PAC, an infrastructure growth program under Dilma and Lula that supported additional government spending to trigger economic growth. This additional spending is considered to be one of the factors that resulted in the 2014 recession. Lorenzoni adds some more comments on how the government has been looking for foreign investment lately. "We are having to deal with something very serious, which is a disease, which has been brought to history because it serves the interest of many which I won't be mentioning here". RicardoSalles (Minister of the Environment) "We have the unique possibility right now that the media is focused almost exclusively on COVID [...] So for this there has to be a group effort while we have a tranquility in media coverage, as they only talk about Covid, and pass the entire cattle changing the rulings and simplifying regulations. Of the IPHAN (National Heritage), of the Agricultural Ministry, of the Environmental Ministry. Now is the time to unite efforts to get a quick move and simplify regulations in all aspects." Bolsonaro soon after follows up (emphasis mine): "The disaster that's coming up, I think Guedes is being nice, huh Guedes? I'm no economist. It's going to be hit bigger than even you can only imagine. It's not only the informals. I think we already hit ten million jobs, all gone. And the state governments don't have how to pay salary for the guys. May, half of the states don't ha.. won't be able to pay salaries again. The disaster is there. They will try to push this shit onto us, these people right next to us will try to push it, and we will react because it's not an infinite bag. Ok? So this worry we will need to have. At the same time there's the BAR association, annoying the Supreme Court to open my impeachment because I didn't present my virus exam, all this bullshit, which everybody has to be paying attention. It's not only taking care of your ministry in these questions we are talking about, it's talking about the political issues also. All right? So ... this is what we should be worried about, as the fight for power continues. At full steam. No neurosis by my side, ok? The field is fertile for a ... some pieces of shit to show up, huh? Raising the flag of ... of ... of the people by my side, it costs nothing. And the fertile terrain is this, unemployment, chaos, misery, social disorder and other things. This is the worry, all should have it, huh? None of this "all good?", the ministry earns money, "shit happened?", on the president's lap. It can't be like that. Today I saw Magno Malta defending me. Magno Malta, I'm sorry, was treated a long time ago to be the vice president. Later he decided not to be, all right. Later he got contact to be minister, all right. Não politically he never attacked me, and always is defending with the problems he has. So he is not the minister to open his chest, challenge, enter the lions' lair, but he can't, huh? For example, when we talk about a possible impeachment, action in the Supreme Court, based on watermarks, I'll go in any part of national territory and that's it! The day it's prohibited to go ... anywhere of Brasil, by the Supreme Court, there goes the term. I hope they don't decide, or he, right? Monocratically, wanting to take certain measures because from there we will have a ... a true political crisis. And I won't keep my tail between my legs. That's it ... zero, zero, all right? Because if I'm wrong, they ever find a connection of mine with a construction company, Swiss bank account, I'll take the beating with no issue. It goes to impeachment, it leaves. Now with bullshit, no! On top of what I said, in front of the Apache Fort. I am the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Full stop. The people were there, I went there. Army day. And said something I don't think is a big deal. The repercussion is huge. "Look, the AI-5" (the AI-5 was a decree by the military government that closed the Congress in 1968) Where's the AI-5? En ... nded (sic) with the ... the AI-5 doesn't exis (sic) ... there is no more institutional act in Brasil anymore. Some bullshit. Article one, four, two. It's people who can't interpret the Constitution. Now over that make a wave? "Let's listen to Congressmen, businessmen", whatever it is. Now when Congress does there a tribute to Che Guevara, Mao Zedong, and whatever, it's not a problem. When the Communist Party does a convention and praises Fidel, between others, it's no big issue. When a poor person raises an AI-5 sign, that I don't give a shit, because there isn't ... there isn't AI-5. There isn't. Article one, four, two: we want to follow articles one, four, two, everybody wants to follow articles one, four, two. (The article 142 of the Brazilian Constitution establishes the military for national defense) And given necessity, all the powers, can, right? Ask the armed forces to intervene to reestablish order in Brazil, that place with no issues. Now all of them, huh? You need to worry with the political issue, and of who's right, take your head out of the whole, fuck! It's not just staying inside the whole all the time, no! "All right, I'm taking care of my image, the image is here, I am looking good, and fuck the rest" No! You have to do your part. So this is what I try, I hav ... ha ... have to talk to you, as after a certain momento, where it gets to th ... the ... the ... mind of these people, it's hard to go back, then they want a crisis, it's a crisis. I have no love for this ... for this ... for this term the ... for ... for ... the President's chair. Ne ne ... zero, zero! I'm not provoking nobody. This is how the defense makes a good defense note saying it will follow the constitution, liberty, and co ... ten! And it won't take an attack, ten! Won't take a defensive move from the guys, fuck! You're going to have some crazy guys, they know who they are, they will be in the fervor of "Oh, oh the president is irresponsible, he is crazy, he commits genocide". It's not like that. Don't go ... what works for one side works for the other, what doesn't work for one side, doesn't work for the other. This is what we should be worried about. With what we have here, the Pró-Brasil, but also with the political question. If we start talking with confidence, and there's pe ... lots of people who speak better than me, and know more than me, have the talk, fuck! Discreetly, but they have to talk, not to let the temperature rise, as it's only punches all the time up on me. And continue going anywhere of Brasil and full stop, that's my problem. All right? If I don't have the right to come and go. Mayor from the end of the world, a jaguapoca (dog with no breed) of a mayor says to arrest. The Justice has to position ... to position itself about this, fuck! Has to position itself, openly! We don't admit arrests from mayor, it's the decree! You have to talk, not stay in silence. And who is right here, all the ministers have to say this, not only Justice. All have to say. Not staying, leaving the BO (police report) ... sail on isn't it ... and we'll go ahead. Ok? This is all I ask you, fuck. This worry. Wake up to politics and expose yourselves, after all, the government is only one. And if I fall, everybody does. Now come on ... if I have to fall one day, we'll fall fighting, a fair fight. Not for some bullshit of ... of ... of exam of ... antivirus, fuck. For the love of God, fuck. Ok? Even I ... to leave this clear, from some eight years from now, when I asked for specialized pharmacies any medicine I asked the doctor "Use a fake name", because if my name goes there, as it was, always was a known guys, isn't it, there are three four that are going to make the medicine, they can poison me, fuck! It's the same thing with the virus question, among others. According to interest, the guy either tests negative or positive. After it gives a result, it goes to the countertest, but gives a problem. And we know, all right? That we have a compromise with the truth. I'd never lie if I didn't really have a negative test. I'd never lie that my negative was positive or vice-versa. Never. The truth above all. So it's an appeal I make to all, to worry about politics, so you are not surprise. I'm not going to wait until the boat starts sinking to take away the water. I'm taking away the water, and will continue taking water from all ministries if it's required. The person has to understand. If you don't want to understand, ok then, fuck! I have the power, and will interfere in all ministries, no exceptions. With the bank I speak with Paulo Guedes, if I have to interfere. Never had a problem with him, zero problems with Paulo Guedes. Now the rest of you, I will! I can't be surprised by news. Fuck, I have the Federal Police that doesn't give me information. I have the intelligence of the Armed Forces that I don't have the informations. ABIN has problems, I have some informations. I don't have more because it's missing, really, we have problems, fuck! Equipment, etc. But we can't live without information. Without info ... co ... who never stayed behind of ... of ... of ... of ... of ... of ... of ... of the door listening what your son or daughter is ... talking about. You need to check and ... later she's pregnant, no using talking to her anymore. Need to check before ... after the kid filled his brains with ... with drugs, there's no use talking with him, that's it. Information is like that. I was watching studying on the weekend here how is the Chinese service, secret, works in the US. What's our worry here? [Redacted] It's simple, "Ah, just don't talk publicly". Who should I speak about it? Everybody sees what's happening. [Redacted] All right, ok? [Redacted] You get from the [redacted] fuck, of [redacted] you don't get. It's a reality. No need to hide more, cover the sun with a sieve, right? There's, isn't it ... then go ... in some ministries there's their people, inside here, right? So we don't want to fight with [redacted], zero fights with [redacted] (note: the female article here strongly implies China). Do we need them to sell? Yes. They also need us. Because if they didn't they wouldn't be buying our soy. They need it. It's a business, fuck. And we need to ally with who has ... some affinity with us. So we can do ... make worth our will at the moment. No need to hide here, then after there's a problem, you call your uncle, "the Uncle". I'll say "Fuck man, you ignored me all the way to today!". You didn't only call me an imperialist, like the "esquerdalha" (a pejorative term for the left wing) and FHC (Fernando Henrique Cardoso, former president) used to say in the past, the rest ... now there's nowhere to go. So this is the worry we need to have. The strategic question, which we aren't having. And I'm sorry, our information service, all, it's a ... they are a shame, a shame! I'm not informed! You can't work like this, it gets hard. That's why, I'll interfere! Full stop, fuck! Not a threat, not a ... an extrapolation by my part. It's a truth. Like I said, right? Gave you sirs the ministries. The veto power. It all changed. It has to changed, fuck. And I want, it's really, it's govern Brazil. It's not the problem of all of the ones here, as Marinho said, right? It's the same boat, the same boat. If anybody digs the fu ... digs the basement here, we will, we will all go into the bag, we will all drown. So this ... this is what we need, think ahead of what to do internally here. When INMETRO (certification agency) I talked to Paulo Guedes. A, sorry for the language, a whorehouse! INMETRO is a whorehoue! Switching tachographs, taximeters, putting chips on the fuel pumps, a whorehouse! Just like the three pin plug. It's very good there now. The media beat the shit. "Ah, put in a colonel". Colonel is formed by IME (Military Institute of Technology). Wouldn't put in a colonel without a ... without a degree, ok? [...] The question of the armament, right? The questions of ... but why? Wait there! Minister of Justi ... Mr. Minister of Justice, please. It was decided some time ago you couldn't handcuff almost nobody. Why are they handcuffing the working citizen, the woman in a park, and the Justice does nothing? You have the speak, fuck! How long will you be quiet? Or do I have to continue exposing myself? You have to speak, get out, pressure them! Can't handcuff, decision of the Supreme Court. And we will stay quiet until when? Keep humiliating our people, why? This is growing. People kep pointing at me, "voted for you to do something!", "voted on you because you have to take decision, for you to fight!". And it's true. I don't give a shit about the reelection. What I want the most is some gets re ... someone is elected, if I'm coming as a candidate, ok? So I can bring ... I want to have peace in Brazil, nothing else. Because if its the left, me and a bunch of you will have to leave the country because you will be arrested. I am sure they will arrest me for homophobia, eight years for homophobia. Then they make up some racism, like they did for (Abraham) Weintraub. Sorry, sorry for the ... the rant: puta que o pariu (literally translates to the bitch that birthed you, basically the strongest swear words)! Weintraub could've said the biggest shit in the world, but racist? We'll have to react people, it's another fight. We need to be a government with ... with activity. Expose yourselves, show that we have the people on our side. That we follow the people. What we really want, as it's said, if I'm not mistaken, Thatcher, right? Or Reagan, I'm not sure? So we ... it has to be conducted by the Brazilian public, and that's it. Where the people is, we'll be together. I didn't invite anybody to go to the front if the ... the ... the Apache Fort, nobody, zero! I was in my sons house, found out: "Go there!" The media is now talking that, I don't know, that two military ministers didn't accept my invitation. The day that ... either I invite the minister to a barbecue at my house or I'll pay a mission! Bolsonaro is interrupted, but then resumes speaking Ok? I don't know, ok? Or I'll pay a mission. If the mission is absurd, the minister says "hey, goodbye, I'm out," all right? Or he goes and gets pissed, but go, fuck! And I'll never pay a shit mission for whoever it is, not even in the military base I would do that to a recruit, not even in the military base, all right? Not even imagining our relationship here which is very good, it's ... going towards that line. We're not panicking, we are fine. We are not accused of swindling money, of corruption, nothing. In th ... nothing, all clear! We have problems up ahead. We'll try to solve it, like I have talked to various ministers. And we'll solve it because the future of Brazil is at the hand of this privileged group here. And I would be nothing without you. You wouldn't be ministers without ... without me ... I doubt it! Hardly anybody would be minister if there was a Haddad here. I doubt it! Could accept for a few days, right? Later see the bullshit it would be, wouldn't be any different than the two previous year of PT, right? Would ask to leave. So an appeal to you, everybody worry about the future of Brazil, with the political question, criticise an act of a person or another isn't ... it's not to criticise the Supreme Court. It's ... it's a ... who doesn't stay ... who doesn't stay became revo .... saw Moro become revolted ... with the liberty these people have. Because of a ... a ... a virus, they let rapists go free. Imagine if they were raping a daughter of our, a son of a bitch like this be set free. Now we have to put ourselves in those person's shows, of the father who had the daughter raped, and the ... the fucker was set free. With a decision, fuck whoever it is, have to go hard on top ... hard on top of that. It's not rant, folks. It's a reality. Our boat is leaving, but we don't know yet, at the moment given the last case, thi... virus, where our boat is going. Can be heading towards an iceberg. We'll go down. So let's pay attention, let's worry. Who can do it right, make yourself present, with good language, alright? But have a position! Because everything can't, everything, come for my ass, all right? You have to get beaten together with me, logically when there's a reason to get beaten or a reason to fight. BragaNetto explains the following speakers, and SérgioMoro speaks Moro: No, it's ... well ... first the question of the plan that was there presented, make my compliments registered. Certainly it has details that have to be filled in, there are the economic questions to be resolved at the Ministry of Economics, to be worked together with other economic areas. And ... just would give a suggestion, minister, if you could put in since early in some part of the plan, some reference important also about ... the public safety and ... control of corruption. They were two central themes, right? In the last elections. Yeah ... they are two themes that, although, obviously, the plan will be subjected there to ... the necessary detailing, but it's important ... to have a benchmark so it seems we aren't moving away from these specific aspects. BragaNetto and Moro discuss a bit more on whether or not details are on the meetings scope Moro: You have to point out that also ... what was a victory of the government, the president, last year was a noticeable fall in main crime indexes. Although this might be more tied into the question of life and safety of people, it's also a key factory for economic investment, to attract, improve, the economic environment. And the control of corruption is assumed, right? So I'd do, there ... exclusively this specific suggestion. Gustavo Montezano (head of the State Development Bank is introduced and starts speaking) Gustavo Montezano: He begins by saying there needs to be an emphasis on the importance to focus on the reconstruction, as advised by Paulo Guedes. "One of the ... the critical parts is this legislation, or operation of the public machine. It's a very opportune moment for us to make use of this, and this makes a big difference of the price of a project, the speed, it's a big difference. So here I subscribe to what Minister Salles said." He follows up by explaining the restructuring of BNDES from a focus in loans to investments. Nélson Teich (Health Minister) is introduced, I will put it entirely as it explains Brazil's COVID policy Teich: He begins by mentioning how controlling the disease is key, as if you're not able to control it, fear will impede economic recovery. "And controlling the disease doesn't mean we'll cure it in a week, but that we're not a lost boat and that we have a strategy to work with this disease, right? So there are three things that we will work. First the information, to understand what is the disease, what's the evolution, how's the infrastructure to treat it because o ... o ... o ... one of the great issues we have today, if you look at Brazil today, it's one of the best countries in relation to mortality (as of May 23rd, Brazil has a CFR of 13%, with around 130k recovered). What's scary is when you see that the hospital can't take in patients, it's the morgue workers, it's that we're opening graves anywhere to bury, and this brings fear. And the fear impedes any other activity from having success. Because as long as this isn't solved, the rest will have no chance of being bought into by society. The next thing is to structure the care operations. So we will invest in logistics, invest in the purchasing process, and try to improve it. Why? Because I have hospitals working, I'll have patients treated, I don't have the feeling of a crisis, the fear improves and the rest can come in. And the third thing we need to keep clear is a process to leave the isolation, the distancing. Not that it will end tomorrow, but we need to have a plan. Then we can show that the ... situation is under control. It may take a little, but we are controlling this process, that we are not a lost boat. So basically what I wanted to s ... say to you is that this is the method that we will treat and will ... we are going to be interacting with all ministries that will be necessary for this to happen in the quickest way possible. Basically it's that and it's a pleasure being here with you. Bolsonaro: Yesterday I called the head of the Brazilian Highway Patrol. I found out, a note, from him, about the passing of a patrolman. And he insisted that it was COVID-19, I called him "Please, what else? He was obese, it was that, was it" well, had, how do you call it? (asks Braga Netto about) Braga Netto: Comorbidities Bolsonaro: Comorbidities. But in his statement it only put out COVID-19. So let's alert the responsible, of the respective ministry, you can put COVID-19, but then put that he had fibrosis ... lots of things, I don't understand that stuff. There was a bunch of stuff there exactly not to bring fear to the population. Because we look, died an Army sergeant, for exemplo. On first look it's a healthy guy, right? A federal policeman, right? Whatever it is, this can't happen. So we ask for this care with the coworkers, right? At whoever is responsible, to the respective ministry, there someone in charge of that, right? To take this care to not bring fear to the population. Teich and Braga Netto discuss on how long it would take to create the exit plan to the isolation Teich: So we can speed up this process. Because in reality we are ... running against the clock. While we can't control the perception we have today that we can take care of the people, it will be hard, right? The problem of the disease is that you get a system that if you talk about efficiency, the hospitals have to be efficient. So when you talk about efficiency, you ... you go almost in the limit of care. You don't have ... you don't have spares, you don't have fat. When you get a disease that arrives, that has many people at the same time, you can't have the agility to prepare the system to take care of it. And we have an additional problem that we have to be careful, that's the following, as you have the hospitals with few ... you have many people talking about COVID, but hospitals are reducing intakes. Which means they will have financial problems. If this continues, they will have even more challenges, you will have a hospital that is in a worse state or a hospital closed. What's happening today? Let's put it in numbers today, that we have four million people with COVID. Brazil today has two hundred and twelve million inhabitants. There are two hundred and eight million that are, that aren't, that aren't having adequate care. For you ... it's cancer, it's cardiovascular. This all is dammed, it's restringed demand. When you control COVID, the not COVID will come in strong, and you can risk a damaged structure. Then you will only transfer the fear. What will be the fear of COVID to the fear of the not COVID. Then we have to be prepared for all that. So it's not only working the ... the short span. We have to prepare for this second stint in which this will all come together. We are doing all of this, just so you know what we are thinking of all this. Just so you can know this is all planned. Braga Netto introduces Tarcísio Gomes, Minister of Infrastructure. He mentions using the Pró-Brasil recovery plan to invest in infrastructure, and how the money is drying up. The Central Bank has been injecting liquidity to help finish some construction projects. Braga Netto then introduces Pedro Guimarães, head of Caixa (one of Brazil's government banks). This will be abridged Guimarães: [...] I mean, all of those thieves, PT, PMDB, PSDB, all that thievery, twenty five percent (interest) per month. And nobody cares. [...] This morning, the people from Band (Bandeirantes, a TV channel) wanted money. The point is is this, will you or won't you give money to Band? Ah, won't give money to Band? Spent half and hour getting beaten up, but replied. And said "Look, are you at home? I have thirty thousand employees on the street. There's not deal, this bullshit of home office. I visited fifteen agencies, and you're at home?" Then they calmed down. [...] know how many people Caixa pays today? Seven million people, and everybody in home office. What bullshit is this? Note: Band has demanded an explanation, and has said that it has not asked for no official payments. If there was a secret request of money, tell who it was and he will be fired, or else they threatened to take legal action Guimarães: [...] Luis Lima, who swam with my father, was an Olympic athlete, had his wife and daughter of fourteen years of age arrested yesterday, in the police wagon. What the fuck is this? Sorry ... What the fuck is this? The guys goes in the wagon with his daughter. If it was me, I'd get my fifteen weapons and ... I'd give a ... I would go ... I would die. Because if my daughter went in the police wagon, I would kill or be killed. What is this? Was swimming in the ... the ... she's an Olympic athlete. You take the person, the person is swimming at fourteen years. I have a daughter that's fourteen. If my daughter goes into the police wagon either I'll kill or be killed M (not sure who this is): Yeah, and Luiz Lima's wife didn't say she's the wife of a Federal Congressman [...] Guimarães: And that governor stealing Guimarães then mentions that out of the 120 high ranking positions he purged 105. He then continues defending about how Caixa is having issues providing credit. Guimarães: There's people from the TCU (Federal Accountability) of the emergency funds? Know what's happening? There's people there saying we give to much and people saying we give too little. We're fucked! G continues explaining how Caixa is the one of the largest banks, and is suffering with works coming down with COVID. He continues "I told my wife: if anything happens I'll go there myself ... take a liter of hydroxychloroquine all that crap. So this way, I think we are, just the last thing, in, in a question of collective hysteria. I mean, I can have thirty thousand employees at Caixa, paying seven million today, two million on fri ... yeah, monday. Yesterday we opened 800 agencies, will open saturday, will open sunday, two hours earlier. And what does the media want? That you pay and fuck the employees. But if two die, 9 o'clock news". He goes back to the Luiz Lima case, "And then you set a rapist free?" He then thanks Moro for allowing Caixa security guards (technically federal employees) to work outside the agencies, so that they can help coordinate the lines outside. Braga Netto introduces Ernesto Araújo, minister of foreign relations Ernesto Araújo: [...] I'd like to mention the following, I think it's fundamental that this international dimension not be simply an adaptation of us to the international scenario, but that it takes into account the capacity Brazil has today to influence the design of a new international scenario. I am more convinced that Brazil today has the condition, the opportunity to sit in the table of the four, five, six countries that will define the new world order. [...] And this scenario is, ... I think he has to take into account the following ... we are there reviewing the last thirty years of globalization. There will be a new globalization. What happened in these thirty years? It was a globalization blind for the theme of values, for the theme of democracy, of liberty. It was a globalization that, we are seeing now, creating a model in which the center of the international economy is in a country that isn't democratic, that doesn't respect human rights, etc, right? [...] That brings the project of, of the, the president, that's not only efficiency, economic growth, but there's liberty, the fight against corruption, the reinvention of Brazil, it's free, it's a Brazil free of these issues that we know. Thank you. Braga Netto introduces Roberto Campos (President of the Central Bank) Campos: I'll go back a bit here, and remind that at the end of the Dilma government the interest rate was 14.5%, short term. But the long one was 20%. And then we look at what happened and caused the interest rate that fell. [...] The rates fell up to the level of 6.5%, stabilized, had the uncertainty of the elections with the uncertainty of PT coming back, got worse, and when the market understood the pension reform was coming, was when there was space to cut rates again. [...] We have done meetings between ... meetings between the central bankers of various countries in the world, it's ... almost every week. I think there are three key points. First, there is a consensus, today, it's ... that the private world is afraid of taking risk. So, it won't ... there won't be a quick exist without the government coming in, in some way, taking risk. Because the private world is afraid to task risks due to the fear factor. [...] If you allow everybody to watch a football game tomorrow, will everybody leave their house and go? Campos then goes explaining the fear factors, and how it has a multiplier effect to a degree. Braga Netto then introduces Damares Alves, Minister of Human Rights, Family and Women Damares: [...] This government has the pillar of values. [...] We received a government that didn't have data, and the data we had was false, lied. A Brazil of guesswork, a Brazil of maybe, "I think it is", "maybe yes maybe no". [...] When we went looking for traditional groups to building the fight against the coronavirus, we discovered, ministers, that we have 1.300.000 Ukrainians in Brasil and nobody every said anything about them to us. [...] We have 1.5 million gipsies and I spoke of 1.3 million. [...] She follows up with some extra data disparities, such as rubber tappers, descendants of escaped slaves, children and elderly in care homes. Damares: In this moment of the pandemic we see the joke of the Supreme Court bringing back abortion, and there was the question of ... are the women victim of zika will abort, and now of the coronavirus? Will they allow all that had coronavirus an abortion in Brazil? Will they allow everybody? Minister, it's filled with feminists that have a single issue that is allowing abortion. I want to remind you minister, that's arriving now, this is a pro-life government, pro-family. [...] Follows up explaining how they are dealing with native populations and Covid Damares: Do you know why we went there president? Because we received the news that there would be deliberate contamination in Roraima and Amazonas in natives, to kill them and blame them on Bolsonaro. I had to go there with the head of the Funai and met with generals of the region and the head the PF, so we could do a covert operation, because they had to kill more natives to say that our policy wasn't working. Damares: So president, just to wrap up. Yeah, I'd like to say that your nervousness has a reason. There has never been so many violations of human rights in Brazil such as during this period. Fundamental rights have been violated. In our hotline there are over five thousand registries of human rights violations. But you sir have a very brave staff and minister of Human Rights. There are over five thousand proceedings and actions being made. Governors and mayors will respond to legal action. The elderly are being arrested and thrown inside police vans in Brazil. Women thrown to the floor and being handcuffed for doing nothing ... doing nothing. We are seeing priests being fined 90 thousand reais because they were inside church with two worshippers. The greatest violation of human rights of the history of Brazil in the last thirty years of Brazil is happening right now, but we are taking action. The pandemic will pass, but governors and mayors will respond and we will ask for the arrest of governors and mayors. [...] the governor Wellington (Piauí) today, yesterday, determined that the police will be able to enter houses. Bolsonaro asks if he signed the decree Damares: Signed! The police will be able to enter houses without warrants. So, this way, the biggest violations are happening now. So, we are preparing, over five proceedings our ministry has taken initiative and we are asking for the arrest of a few governors. Braga Netto introduces Marcelo Antônio, Minister of Tourism. Not much happens, with the exception of him defending the legalization of casinos, to Damares' anger. He believes it to be possible to do so with proper police work guaranteeing that it is done properly and legally. In Damares' words "Deal with the devil" General Mourão, vice president, invites Damares to play the roulette Marcelo follows up with a proposal to rent hotels to isolate medical professionals and reduce exposure.
so i just spend a full 1 hour ride explaining this to my dad when he asked me about our country's president gutting of the "seguro popular" and thought it would be a good idea to tell you guys about this this is a topic i lived somewhat closely as i spend the past year in my medicine internship and lived through it and talked a lot with those who dealt with it first some context mexico healthcare history: call my country north argentina cause for better or - more often - worse we just cannot be a normal third world country like everyone else, and that includes our healthcare system(s) this country spent most of its history without any kind of national healthcare services: war, poverty, corruption and france zealous defense of their foreign soil bakeries being tough obstacles for such projects as constant warfare is not good for social welfare projects until a couple of interesting fellows appeared: a spanish baker who had organized his community into a collective support system to help each other with medical expenses thought that having some sort of healthcare from the goverment would be pretty rad and not communist at all as the opposition to the idea accused and his org grew up and gained the attention of a indigena born (more common term used in mexico by our first people) agriculture engineer who reedacted a project and presented it to important people (natives and inmigrants, small feather in liberalism cap) the mexicam institute for social security was approved in 1941 and started 2 years later or IMSS from now on as is best know https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instituto_Mexicano_del_Seguro_Social (note the cool logo of the eagle protecting the mother and child) IMSS is kind of a big deal as one of the biggest and strongest syndicates in latinamerica that provided workers with healthcare, nurseries, post retirement payments and other nice stuff. A heavily independent and sometimes isolated and nepotist public organization better understood as a health work28kers syndicate that negotiates its services with the federal goverment they received funding from federal, state and local goverment as well as another 2 sources of money: a small cut from workers salary and another payment from the employer based on a percentage of the salary this already has 3 clear problems: self employed people didnt automatically get opted in so bureocracy and policy illiteracy were barriers to access, employers didnt automatically opt and much more importantly, informal workers didnt have a way to access other than burdening the full cost of it without the cut normally paid by employers (more on all this later) in such a heavily informal economy only a rough 25 ish % of the nation got access to it and cause this country is weird public and goverment employes wanted their own (casino with blackjack and hookers) healthcare system all for them and they got it (ISSSTE), the mimitar forces wanted their own healthcare system and they got it (SEDENA healthcare) and while we are at it PEMEX (mexico state oil company), the syndicate of train workers amd others wanted their own fully independent (cartels) systems where these syndicates and their leaders could make money and keep power by controlling even more stuff from the workers hands or keep the "bases" aka the jobs for doctors, nurses, bureocrats etc warm for their family etc these 3 i capitalized (ISSTE, SEDENA AND PEMEX) and IMSS being the only ones that survived (thank fucking god) this improved coberture to a great... 33? % or somethingh around that, good enough for a 3 point shot in basketball but not for a universal right so the goverment and its department of health had to give somethingh, not universal care of course, but something to the other third of the population and they had to directly create and manage open hospitals and clinics for the rest of the population (SSA for secretaria de salud units) that often made ends meet by combinin the poor funding they got from goverment with small payments from the population so it was never really free as it should and often too limited leaving people with more expensive illness out of luck comes 2004 and a new party is in power after 70 years, vicente fox, and his cabinet create " seguro popular" a opt-in insurance created and funded by the goverment that basically works like a private insurance operated by the goverment somehwat loosely in the style of metlife, state farm or gecko and other such business https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/seguro-popular-most-affected-by-austerity/ (not the not as cool eagle lacking logo that gives you a hint of its poorer budget compared to IMSS and ISSTE, this service and the hospitals it worked with despite covering so much people still lacked quality compared to IMSS or ISSTE) the people who didnt have any of the other 4 insurance (IMSS, ISSSTE, SEDENA, PEMEX) were eligible to pay a small amount of money and the seguro popular paying the bigger part and get access to this new goverment backed org that negotiates with private hospitals, SSA clinics and hospital, IMSS etc this service was a success and got bigger and more complete over time, going from being somewhat limited at first (emergency care, prenatal healthcare, pregnancy, vaccination, basic pediatrics, basic surgery) to include thinghs like dental care, cancer treatments, nutritionists and psycology in their catalogue soon they had more than twice the people included that even IMSS did ( even if their "clients" were moderately less well provided than the employer backed systems). the poorer part of mexico uninsured population didnt need to fear medical bankruptcy (as much) amd a majority of the country had healthcare insurance! of different quality, flavor and ease of access (SEDENA, PEMEX and ISSTE workers away of cities had more distance to cover for medical services since their userbase were much smaller and hence had less units) cause mexico had to mexico. but it worked well enough with cheaper quotas to pay for the worker conpared to opting it for IMSS which is even more important since the informal workers are overall less wealthy than IMSS users too off topic: and sometimes workers whose employers illegally treat them with firing them if they ask for their legal right to IMSS access, this is ilegal but many employers in this country are fine with the risk for every hard earned day little of fucking up workers for some pesos more so the workers pay for seguro popular access i met and talked with a lot of these workers in my internship all in all the healthcare insurance systems all lived in harmony but this changed when the lopez obrador nation attacked amlo is, i am gonna be clear, a dude with a huge ego who needs to replace everythingh his hated enemies (past presidents who beat him in elections) with somthing related to him and the young seguro popular, only 15 years old, was a victim of child murder by our tropical messiah seguro popular (far from flawless) had to be smeared as much as possible to sell the replacement of it, what obrador called INSABI (national institute for health and wellbeing) to the population who used it amd the best way to go at it was by attacking it on not being a true free healthcare https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/amid-health-service-confusion-seguro-popular-workers-are-out-of-a-job/ (note the laid off employes worries too ) true, although as someone who did medical practice in a hospital that worked closely with seguro popular (to the point most people tought they owned the hospital rsther than just provide funding, drugs, equipment to use in their users) i can tell that it was cheap and people got it in the same day as they asked for it, surprising burocratic efficiency for this country and had a lotnof reinbursement systems for those who needed it all in all it was flawed and a imperfect solution to mexico imperfect hesltycare system biggest (huge) gap but it also was way better than AMLO said So what does our president do to replace it after announcing it would dissapear on january 1 of 2020? Literally Nothingh, and i mean this quite literally, he dissapeared it without any replacement ready, just like that. all its users went back to 2003 where the same hospitals and clinics are still open (remember seguro popular didnt run them) to everybody but the hospital needs you to pay for the services that before seguro popular covered to make ends meet https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/new-health-scheme-touts-free-universal-care/ (note how "fully free it actually is and how much false info amlo uses to promote it) now i know what may come to mind: so you pay without the intermediary? is not that better? no, because there is still 2 problems big and small ( and this long ass post is ending soon) even beyond the false publicity of this being free AMLO used to campaign small one first: the goverment in all its glorius populism promised " a real free healthcare" but they are not putting the money where their mouth is and hospitals need to make the budget work so they moved the goalposts to fully free for those worse off and small quotas for the rest (free for the really poor, the slighlty less really poor have to pay) and background checks (yes, really) of sorts to avoid "cheating the system" cost money too, hurra for unnecessary paperwork and burocracy now here is the real problem that double works as TLDR for this wall of text worthy of trump private fantasies they didnt reallocate the money that went to seguro popular and people who were on expensive treatments, had cancer or other complicated diseases, those who really needed this the most are the ones who will price to put a simple example there is literally kids with cancer dying right now whose parents need to find enough charity money for them to live now that seguro popular dissapeared since it covered their treatment and AMLO new replacement is coming any summer now (suure) i am gonna expand on this a bit to contextualize: i talked with the paedatrician that worked with seguro popular in december 23th, asked her what was gonna happen in january 1th and what exactly insabi was beside its name. "only AMLO maybe knows and that is a maybe". imagine trump announcing that obamacare is dead and will be replaced and 1 week before the desdlin to cease obamacare there were still not any details on what the replacement will be cause burning with fire everythingh previous (ENEMIES) fellow politician did is urgent, who cares if we dont have a replacemt ready (and want to pocket the money...) amd some kids womt have their lymphoma treatments in the meantime while we do that lets make sure we emphasize how healthcare access for this 65% of the population is now technically "free" (even if it ends up costing more and doesnt help those who need the healthcare the most) sorry for all the little jokes but i needed something to have fun writing this to avoid how depressive and infuriating it is typing it and breaking my phone midway . TLDR: mexican leftist trump strips healthcare from those who need it the most cause any leftover from previous goverments must BURN and they pocketed the money cause why not and took credit cause its technically free now (at cost of covering less and people dying cause this) thank you all who read this also one of the few english language sources i found that explain this well https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/english/mexicos-new-free-healthcare-institute-spreads-confusion?amp https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/new-health-scheme-touts-free-universal-care/ (note how "free" it actually is, i posted this link above but if you only came for the tldr this peovides the best short explanation )
People have said that they don't like looking through the photos on Granola Shotgun, so I have pulled some quotes from this piece. I have bolded a few key sentences:
But everything was exquisitely organized to intensionally exclude actual permanent residents. I've had more than a few mayors and city officials around the country explain that residents are a burden to the system, but businesses and temporary visitors are cash cows. Hence the glut of resorts, pyramids and stadiums from sea to shining sea. Add fierce resistance to new housing from legacy homeowners and this is what you get. In the parking lots of the big box stores near the new Casino I noticed quite a few people living in old recreational vehicles. They weren't travelers. These were their regular accommodations since homes and rentals anywhere in the region are wildly more expensive than what wage earners could manage on their collection of part time minimum wage no benefits salaries. This is in part because construction of new homes and apartments has been intentionally restricted or only allowed under very specific circumstances at exorbitant cost. Top off the housing supply problem with forty years of stagnant wages and a big slice of the population lives in elderly Winnebagos.
. . .
I enjoy talking to folks in order to understand the larger dynamics at work. It's easy for outsiders to state the obvious. Living in a vehicle is a bad idea. It's illegal and subjects the occupants to the scrutiny of police and private security. It's far less convenient and stable than a proper home. A vehicle is a depreciating asset rather than a solid investment, etc. Why not just move to a less expensive location and live a normal life? As they say... it's complicated. Many people have relatively secure employment where they are yet live paycheck to paycheck with no savings. Picking up and moving to Tennessee or Indiana is easier said than done, especially if you don't already know people there and have no specific job waiting for you when you arrive. Not everyone has family to fall back on. By the time you're forced out of your home or apartment because you just can't manage the bills a mobile living arrangement sometimes looks like the best stop gap option. And as I'm fond of saying, there is no solution that can bridge the gap between a $15 an hour job and an $800,000 home.
r/startups banned me for broadcasting this message: Founders! Do. Not. Raise. Venture. Capital
I love the book Rich Dad Poor Dad. It was my fav growing up. Since then, I've founded several startups, was employee #3 at a $65m VC firm in SF, and realized that there is a similar phenomenon to what Robert Kiyosaki is talking about in Rich Dad Poor Dad currently occurring in Silicon Valley. Let's tastefully call this phenomenon: Rich Founder Poor Founder. The point of entrepreneurship is freedom. Yes it’s to build cool shit and innovate and all that, but at the end of the day the sort of person who becomes an entrepreneur is usually doing it because they want freedom to control their day and work on the things they care about. A lot of people go out and start their first business and try to make it a venture backed startup. That’s the wrong move. That’s like going to the gym and trying to bench 250 lbs on day one. It’s not that you can’t build up to that, it’s just not the right move today. I think the right move is to start a business that can make you $100k+ per year in profit. It doesn’t matter if it can’t scale past that, it’s about building that foundation to give you the freedom to try new things. Fail at those new things and it doesn’t matter as you have that financial foundation. It could be something as simple as a consulting or a services business, or a digital product like a course, newsletter or subscription podcast. Anything that is high margin, simple and enabled by the internet. VC’s may shit on lifestyle businesses but at the end of the day they collect a 2% yearly management fee regardless of their success and typically have a great lifestyle (once their fund size is above $100m AUM). Ask yourself what’s an easier path to wealth and freedom? Path 1: Venture backed startup 90% chance of $0. Small personal income until scale, IPO or liquidity event. Massive dilution. Most founders end up owning 5%-20%. $500m market cap = $25m-$100m for founder(s). OR Path 2: Lifestyle business 50% - 75% chance of success. Pay yourself whatever you want out of profits over time. If you can bootstrap your way to $300k/yr in profit and invest half of that ($150k/yr) at 10%/yr for 20 years = $9.6m + $150k/yr salary to enjoy your life with your family and friends. After 20 years, you can choose to sell that business or automate it and let it ride but with $9.6m invested in a conservative portfolio paying out 5% annually = $480k/year in interest or $40k/mo for you to live off without ever touching the principal nor sacrificing quality of life. The definition of rich is having passive income that’s greater than your burn. I’m pretty sure we can all comfortably live off $40k/mo without ever having to leave the house. But wait this isn’t a fair analysis as venture backed startups typically reach scale or a liquidity event in 10 years and you did 20 years for the lifestyle business. Fair, I’m sure after 10 years most of us can comfortably live off $20k ish/mo without ever having to work or touch the principal investment. Most entrepreneurs start with one goal in mind: freedom. If you value freedom, you should have one goal for your first company, and that’s to build a lifestyle business that can produce $100k+/yr of personal income. It can be boring and it doesn’t have to scale. It sets yourself up for the foreseeable future and then you can afford to take big swings. Forget startups. Forget venture capital. Build something that gets you in the game and makes you a living first. I think VCs may underestimate the extent to which mainstream entrepreneurship is a key input to outliers and moonshots. So many successful billionaire founders had a “never worry about rent again” moment via an exit in a much more boring business before swinging for a home run. Elon Musk — before sending rockets into space and revolutionizing the auto-industry, Elon Musk was broke building Zip2 (online city guides for newspapers) before he netted $22m on the sale. Source Patrick & John Collison — built Auctimatic: auction management software for small Ebay sellers, and sold it for $5m before going on to found Stripe, valued at $36b. Source Mark Cuban — Before building and sellingBroadcast.com for $5.7b and buying the Dallas Mavericks, Mark Cuban built a services business called MicroSolutions and sold it for $6m. Source Mike Bloomberg — now worth $60b, Mike Bloomberg had a nice “never think about rent again” exit at 39 when Salomon was acquired by Phibro in 1981; he received $10 million. Bloomberg said “The Salomon Brothers did me the two greatest favours in my life. They hired me and they fired me.” Source Daniel Ek — Spotify isn’t Ek’s first success. Daniel Ek became a self-made millionaire at age 23, before even putting a single thought into Spotify. At 23, Daniel Ek “retired” after he sold his online marketing company Advertigo to Swedish digital marketing firm TradeDoubler in a deal worth $1.25 million. Alex Tew — started the Million Dollar Homepage to raise money for his university education. He sold 1 million pixels on a 1000 x 1000 pixel grid on his website for $1 per pixel. He ended up making $1,037,100 USD before founding the billion dollar meditation app, Calm. Austin Allred — co-authored the growth hacking textbook Secret Sauce, which became a best-seller and provided him the personal seed money to build Lambda School, valued over $150m. And countless others: Ev Williams (Blogger), Pincus (freeloader, support.com, tribe), Travis Kalanick (Red Swoosh), Stewart Butterfield (Flickr), Jason Fried & DHH (37 Signals services business) etc. All of these entrepreneurs built more of a lifestyle business or had a smaller liquidity event before they built a rocket (figuratively and literally for Elon). There is no greater security than knowing that no matter what risks you take, you have a business or enough cash in the bank to pay for your livelihood. If you start by building a lifestyle business it will force you to build a product or offer a service that customers actually want. It forces you to create a monetization plan and it forces you to build a real business. By starting a lifestyle business it forces you to create something you’re passionate about and build an actual business that will actually help attract VC if that’s the path you choose to go down. Renowned value investor and Warren Buffett mentor, Ben Graham, once said: “In the short-run, the stock market is a voting machine. But in the long-run, it is a weighing machine.” AKA in the short term the market may value hype and narrative, but in the long term it always values real traction, revenue, earnings and margins. We’re seeing this play out in the venture market today. In the last few years you may have heard startups raising at eyebrow lifting valuations and hiring large masses of employees. But behind the curtain their P&L is f*cked! They have little to f*ck all for revenue and huge expenses. Founders often get attached to valuations and forget that when they sell the business, the weighing machine is the only thing that matters. The buyer has to have a way to pay themselves back, either via earnings, a future sale or strategic synergies. Your venture valuation is irrelevant. Venture valuations aren’t backed by fundamentals and their funds have been compared to a ponzi scheme. Build a lifestyle business where results, traction, revenue, margins and earnings are the things that matter because at the end of the day, the numbers have to work with the weighing machine. Pro tip: If you’re bootstrapping, you can still take advantage of venture capital by using all the VC subsidized software available on the market. The internet is the greatest leveler of access to entrepreneurship society has ever seen. There is far too much focus on raising venture capital and creating 100–1000x outcomes and not nearly enough on leveraging the internet to empower entrepreneurs to build profitable and sustainable software-enabled lifestyle businesses. TL;DR 'Rich Founder' is someone who creates a sustainable 'lifestyle business' with a high probability of success. 'Poor Founder' is someone who thinks they need to raise venture capital, a fancy office, big staff and a bunch of resources to succeed. Rich Founder has a probability of success and enjoys his/her life. Poor Founder is miserable and might as well go to a Casino and put it all down on Red 5. As for my shameless plug: Here's a FREE community and resource hub to help more people become 'Rich Founders'.
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