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DD: Looking For Some Cheaper Premium Puts? Looking to Diversify Your Puts? Here Are Some Ideas!
Alright so SPY premiums are really expensive right now but you still want to short the market. Here are some positions that I'm holding right now that are fairly liquid (there's a range), decent premiums (at least when I bought them) and are based on different ideas so some of them may still pay tendies in different market conditions: (Alphabetical Order) ACWI (All Country World Index) - Seems like the entire world economy is being effected right now BAC - This one might be too late. Mine has a September expiry. I bought this one because of all the shit going down with corporate debt bubbles and the repo market shenanigans BBVA - Cheap international bank failure exposure BK - Honestly bought this one because it was cheap and because the put / call ratio was huge so some institution that knows way more than me figured out a reason to buy puts on it DIA - Sometimes cheaper alternative to SPY worth keeping an eye on and obviously still quite liquid DIS - This sub has covered this one fairly extensively EEM - See ACWI + emerging markets have worse healthcare systems EFA - Great exposure to parts of the world heavily effected by beer virus EMB - See EEM + repo posts on this sub EPI - India's fucked ERI - Casinos are fucked EWG - Germany's fucked EWI - Italy's fucked EZU - Eurozone's fucked F - Saw a post of Coronavirus about how fucked Europe is and how bad car sales are going to be FUN - Theme parks are fucked HYG - The highest put / call ratio on the stock market. I'm guessing something to do with BBB shit getting downgraded to Junk and everything else getting downgraded further. Hundreds of thousands of puts on this thing so obviously someone way smarter than me knows something. INDA - India's fucked KRE - Financial sector's fucked LQD - As investment grade bonds get downgraded this fund may struggle to find shit to buy. Also people are beginning to realize the shit that's in it right now is garbage LVS - Casinos are fucked LYV - Concerts are fucked MAT - BRUTAL financials. Imagine going down on a day where the market was up 5% PSP - Another one with TONS of puts on it. My best guess is with the impending recession the thesis is that the firms within these funds have some bad assets on their books QQQ - Pretty normal to see this here but thought I would include it regardless SPCE - Obvious reasons. Got into this one a couple weeks ago. As the market goes down this should go down twice as much. Premiums might be too high at this point. SQQQ - Just buy some SQQQ shares on up days if you think it will go down the next day TRIP - Travel's fucked UBER - Self explanatory I think UCO - Buy puts on this one if you think oil will go down. Buy shares or calls if you think it will go up VNQ - Super high put/call ratio. I think the MM's think real estate is fucked. WMT - I'm not sure on this one but it feels like it hadn't really seen much downside when I bought it XIC.TO - High put/call ratio, low premiums, seems to follow SPY fairly closely XIU.TO - See XIC XLF - Financial Sector's fucked between low interest rates and repo bullshit Expiry dates range from April to June with a couple Septembers. I may have been better off just buying SPY puts but I've always been one to try and think outside the box. I'm by no means an expert at this so please do your own research before buying puts on any of these. Please let me know what you autists think and if you have any plays that you like that you think we should consider!
My Step Father inherited over one million dollars last year. He just shot himself two nights ago.
I've never made a post venting about my personal life unless you count my contribution to the constipation sub-reddit. But this group seems to strike a personal chord . So some background info: I'm the middle child in my family. My mom gave birth to my sister in 89 , and to me in 93. We both had different fathers, and we both never met our fathers. When i was about 9-10 my mom met someone when she was bartending who then became my step-father. shortly after my mom gave birth to my little sister, Mikayla. Jay ( step dad ) Was always cool and i loved having him as a step dad. He was funny as heck and his other kids ( My step brother and sister ) would come sleep over our house every other weekend and we would all have so much fun. My step-brother and step-sister lived in the inner city and were primarily raised by their birth mom who i never really met. Jay hated her and it seemed like they didnt get along any more and that was fine. I would hear how she would say nasty things about Jay and my mom but it never really affected me. when my step siblings started to grow into their teens they got into drugs and crime. So my mother who doesnt see the good in people convinced our side of the family to cut ties with out step-siblings because she didnt want drugs in her house. We never really saw our step siblings again. To this day, the last time i spoke with Jay i brought up my step brother and he even told me not to tell my step brother anything about him or my mom ( this will make more sense in a minute. ) My step dad had a drinking problem when i was really young. It never affected me and i never saw him do anything violent or hurt my mom or anyone. I remember when i was in the car with him sometimes, he would be drinking beers while driving us. That was the worse of it from what i ever saw. My mother drank a lot too. When i was in middle school they both stopped drinking all together. They made it look easy. But my mom was verbally abusive and manipulative saying that because of how we act she would run away and never come back or kill herself when no one was home. These are things she would say all the time, even when i was little and thought she meant it. They would fight and argue slightly more than your average family. I later found out that my step dad had a addiction to painkillers. since my mother never really tells me any details when it comes to personal things like that i never really knew how bad it was. All i know is that he went into detox and that was it. Never talked about it, never got to say how proud i was that he was sober and how important that is, because i never knew at the time. I only knew after i went to rehab myself for opiates. Anyways to speed things up, my step-grandmother was wealthy. She had a great job when she was younger and knew how to handle money and invest. She also loved to drink and 2 years ago she started getting sick and turns out she had cirrhosis of the liver. We all stayed with her while she laid in bed slowly dying. I found out that my mom was looking up ways to " Speed up the dying process " and searched up " songs to die to " on her ipad and they would administer the morphine to my step-grandma. She passed shortly after. So now my lower middle class family is about to receive over a million dollars in bonds and stocks and all that. Part of me always felt that thats all they really cared about. Taking a step back, My Step-father and my mom loved to gamble. They were without a doubt gambling addicts. They never lost the car or wernt able to pay the bills, but they would spend thousands of dollars at the casino and when i would go with my mom, it would mke me sad to see her win 1,000 dollars then be at 5.00 spinning a nickel at a time. She would never walk out with any money. Sometimes she wouldnt even have enough money to pay for the tolls or put gas in her car. Sometimes she would run away to erie PA , spend all of her money at the casino , and be stuck there until someone wired her money to get home. What do they do after they get the money? Move to LAS VEGAS. Myself, my sister, and other family members expressed our concerns because clearly it was a terrible idea. But she assured us that she doesnt really gamble anymore and she just loves the area. ( they started taking vacations to vegas as a little family a few years prior. My mom/Step Dad/little sister ) So Jay ( step dad) Got a job a the water treatment center in Las Vegas because thats what he did here. They left everything in their old house and my sister moved into that house. And they went to look at houses for two weeks in vegas before they officially moved. And my little sister told me they spent the whole 2 weeks at the casinos and on the last day they bought the first townhouse they looked at... 5 months goes by and my little sister want to move back to Buffalo. She tells me all they do is fight and now my step dad is drinking again. its been over 14 years since he last drank to my knowledge. He quit his job at the water treatment center and now they all stay at home all day and get blackout drunk. My mom started drinking again too. They would spend thousands and thousands at the casinos. They bought nice new cars, a harley, a old VW travel van, and a 9mm pistol. During this time it never really bothered me that they never gave me or my sister any of the money because money isnt that important to me, but it is important. And we just had our first child a year before. So it kind of hurt to hear thats how they are spending their money, when me and my sister are both starting families and cant even afford basic things. My little sister has 80,000 dollars for when she turns 25 that my step grandma left in her will. We got nothing. And it also hurt that my mom and jay were OK with only one of us getting that much money. I try not to be resentful at my little sister for that because i know its not her fault. My older sister has tried multiple times to try and get at that money. When my little sister wanted to come home, my older sister took her in. My older sister is a terrible human and i can make a whole book about all the fucked up shit shes done. She only cares about money so she saw an opportunity by taking my little sis in. So now its just my mom and Jay out in vegas. No Job, drinking every day, burning tens of thousands at casinos. My Grandma has a stroke. My mom comes home to help take care of my grandma. Jay calls my little sister crying about his life and how he wishes he was there and how much he loves our grandma that is sick. He also wired her 800 dollars to send him acid in the mail. He rents a car a week later and drives back home to buffalo. We would all go over there and would have fun and then all of the sudden he just leaves. he says he needs to get home to feed the cat and is afraid of covid lockdowns. My older sister told me that he texted her when he was still here asking for pain pills. She didnt know where to get any so im assuming he was getting sick and wanted to get back home. So he left after being there for a little over a week. Thats the last time i will ever see him. last night my mom tells me that she saw Jay get on a party bus in front of the house on the house camera. She calls him out over text i think and he doesnt respond. instead, he shut all the cameras off on the house. i asked if anyone has checked up on him because he could be dead. I apologized after i said that because it was a bit morbid but this was right after i found out he was back on opiates. My mom calls for a wellness check and the police found him dead at the house with a self inflicted gunshot wound. He shot himself. Im assuming he was drunk and on pills, i dont know how pre-meditated this all was. But im broken and sad. I fear for my little sister because that was her biological father andi know how much they loved each other. My mother and Older sister Are experts at manipulating and when they argue, they use very personal things to try and cut deep to try and hurt you as much as they can. I will always wonder what exactly my mom said to Jay the night she saw him enter the limo Bus. Could it have been something she said to trigger this reaction? If he was as drunk as he was would he have handled it differently? I tried talking to my older sister about it ( I do not talk to my sister often. She has done some many things to hurt me that i will never ever ever trust her again, and part of me will always hate her sadly.) But she is only concerned about the money as well. She is going on how Mom isnt going to give us any of the money or help us in any way , although true, It just hurts me that they care so much about money that they are willing to put it infront of family. My little sister hates that she has 80,000 coming to her and shes told me time and time again she wish she didnt have it. My sister has already tried to manipulate mikayla into splitting her inheritance. The Thing that gets me livid is whats happening now. So after we found out we all went over the see my mom. We felt terrible and we brought her grandaughter over the cheer her up and be there for her. We talked outside ( me,little sister, girlfriend ) about going with mom with help clean up the house because they dont clean that shit up. So today i talked to my mom and said " hey we are going with you to help clean the house because you cant do that alone." And she refuses. Like, insists that she can do it herself. She HAS to do it herself. She will not let us go with her. and shes leaving tomorrow. She was taking care of my dying grandma and now we dont know what to do about my grandma. Shes going to go back to the house herself, clean it up, and she said she DEF has to "sage" the house.... I cant help but get angry because she just cares about the money. She wants to be able to go to the casino without Jay making her feel bad for asking him for his money all the time. She wants to just sit in the guilt and feel sorry for herself and she wont let us help her. She has nothing in vegas anymore and she still wont come home. Shes going to burn whatevers rest of that money, sell all of his cars, burn that money, get depressed when its all gone and shell have nothing. we will continue to struggle with our finances while she gives the rest of that money to the casinos. She got mad at me for telling my step brother that his dad died because she.s afraid his family will try to come after the money. I wish they never got that stupid fucking money. It ruined our family and my step dad would still be here if they never got that money and i really believe that. Sorry if this is worded poorly and is not in a comprehensive order or whatever. I just wanted to vent and it felt good to type it all out. The only activity that pulls me away from this stuff is streaming games and goofing off but i dont even feel like doing that right now.... idk. money sucks. actually , getting a large sum of money when youve been poor most of your life sucks.
How are you guys feeling these days? I poured into ERI back in April and May and have tried to forget about my shares but man, they are looking tasty right about now. Any chance CZR hits triple digits, say, around spring time? Or will the rising Covid cases keep casinos quiet for a lot longer?
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Theory: Are Gods and Devils personifications of aspects?
In mythologies like the Greek or Norse, Gods and some monsters are personifications of aspects, like Zeus and the Lightning ( all Lightning comes from Zeus' weapon ) or the monster Typhon and his catastrophes, or Uranus who is the sky. So is it similar in Konosuba? Kazuma believes that he could only win the casinos in Elroad because Eris ( The Luck ) was backing him up and if he tries to gain money for a selfish reason Eris would block his luck. We know that when you worship a God you gain a bit of the aspect of his power, like Luck buff with Eris Church or the Revenge Blessing from Regina. In Bakuen, Cecily says that all water comes from the Goddess of Water, quote: "Water the rice fields! Where did the water come from? …That’s right! It came from the rain blessed by Aqua-sama, the goddess of water." End quote. You could say that it was BS from an Axis Cultist, but we know from canon that it is true, in the Aqua SS that came out before her V17 SS that it's about it. In the new WN SS, Eris says, quote: “Y-You don’t really have much respect for gods, do you… Aqua-san is a really powerful and important goddess, you know? No one can live without water. Everyone takes getting fresh water every day for granted, that’s why no one respects her very much". End quote. She basically says that without Aqua there would be no water at all and the Konosuba world isn't even Aqua's world. And this supports the the LN canon as I previously mentioned as it isn't WN-only, when it is explained that you cannot summon water from nothing, all water in the world has always the same volume, however as the Goddess of Water Aqua can make new water from nothing and even give people dolls that summons rain too. Quote: There hasn’t been any rain recently, so it seems like the fields around town are starting to experience a shortage of water. However, magic exists in this world. They could just get a few magic users here and solve the problem with a few applications of Create Water. “Kazuma, magic doesn’t create water out of nothing, you know? Create Water and similar spells just gathers up water from the area using magic." … Yeah, if you can create an infinite amount of water from nothing, the amount of water in the world would steadily increase until it eventually turns the entire planet into a ball of water. This world is under the guidance of a goddess, after all. I’m sure they set up such limits to prevent the world from being destroyed so easily. End quote. Aqua even says that although she knows it about water she has no idea about Create Earth as she isn't thr Goddess of Earth or something. Eventually Aqua summons rain through divine power and not magic and fix the problem, quote: Eventually, we fled from the massive downpour that descended over the fields and praised Aqua who managed to be useful for once– A few days later. The Axis Cult gained a new follower after Aqua gave him a teruteru Aqua, that she made while she was bored, that could call down rain by being turned upside down, but that’s a story for a different time. End quote. Now about Devils, I'd say the same thing applies to at least Duke of Hells. Vanir then would be the personification of Foresight as the Devil of Foresight and all things related to that comes from Vanir. Just as Aqua giving a Aqua doll that summons rain, Vanir can make Vanir dolls that have a bit of his power, even his masks will grant you a buff. In Bakuen, in the same way Cecily says that all water comes from Aqua, she mentions that it's well known that Soketto's Divination Powers have a diabolic source, quote: "I heard that the powerful diviner from the Crimson Demon Village is always accurate in her predictions. According to what I’ve heard, she used suspicious diabolic power to see the future and perform intricate divination." Just like all Gods are Gods of something, the two Dukes of Hell we met were Dukes of something, if the same rule applies to Devils, wouldn't all Foresight related things come from Vanir as he is the personification/the Devil of Foresight and Soketto is channeling Vanir's power? We know from Hoost that Komekko if became a skilled enough Mage would be able to even summon him and Foresight just like Aqua or Luck isn't exactly regular magic. My point with all of this is to say that, just as Eris says that no one lives without water and people have water daily because of Aqua, would that mean that if a God is killed, his dominion/aspect would cease to exist too? If Aqua dies, does that mean no more water in all worlds? If Eris dies there's no more Luck? Kazuma would lose his Luck? If the same applies to Devils, would Soketto lose her job as she won't be able to tell the future anymore if Vanir dies? Would all the worlds be affected in a catastrophic way if a God/Devil of something dies? What would have been the consequences if Chomusuke wasn't fine after Wolbach died? Would all NEETs stop being lazy and no one else would become violent after her death? She's the Goddess of Sloth and Violence after all. Would the war between Heaven and Hell described on Vanir's Spin-off have stopped because the existence of Gods and Dukes of Hell are necessary for the balance or something? As if one with an important aspect dies things would get bad. Vanir clearly dislikes Aqua and had many chances to kill her like when she sleeps in front of him but not only he never does anything but when Aqua left Axel to the DK Castle he took drastic measures to help Kazuma and ensure he would be able to save her. Without water the humans Vanir likes to use as food would soon vanish and he would definitely hate that. So many questions...
Philly Weekly watchlist. [Figured I'd drop it a little early for you guys <3]
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Since I'm probably going to abandon my save file due to an unfortunate event, I thought I just post the story of it here. Obviously this will end up in a very extreme wall of text - but if you are interested in such stories feel free to continue reading.
1.0. The Preparation
Last year in august I was planning on playing Elona(+) again, since it was around 9 years ago when I played vanilla Elona on its latest stable version. In 2010 I never made it far into the game, I wasn't even close to anywhere to 3 digit stats - but I was able to at least survive basic stuff and advanced very slowly until I stopped playing at some point. What I do not like if you can things permanently mess up which was one of the reasons I decided to play Elona+ instead of Elona this time as it appears Elona+ tries to avoid/reduce such things. I always went out without any pets 9 years ago as I think they pretty immediately died for me - and so I went on another petless journey again. My choice fell on an Eulderna Warmage since at the time I created the character it seemed to be the best choice for me with the extra magic resistance while not having any specific disadvantages. As feats I choosed some resistances and Exorcist to nullify being cursed on dreams as I remember 9 years ago on vanilla Elona this was a significant threat to me (however, now I would not choose this feat anymore since cursing items later in the game can be quite important - I wished this feat would just add a toggle special action like Dupli-Cane and Advanced Casting so you could enabled/disable this at any time).
1.1. The Beginnings
I started the game pretty casually on Essential Mode (I would have preferred a harder mode but I dislike loosing life/mana when the game/system crashes by accident) with the intention not to savescum. I was entering the wilderness around my house to improve my stats until I could survive basic enemies like a kobold. My playstyle mostly reflects of going melee-only and I'm not sure why I choosed a Warmage at this time - possibly I have read before that magic is pretty strong and decided to give it a try later - but I don't fully remember. I was exited about simple stuff like identifying things to permanently unlock their basic selling values to make more money. After around 1-2 hours it was time for looting the Puppy Cave to make more money and progress even further. I tried to improve my gear by getting some resistances and preferring glass gear for more speed. At some point I entered a pretty low danger level dungeon which was at this time pretty high for me. At the end was a level 8 or 9 Grudge which I don't remember anymore if I defeated him or not - but slowly I begun to get stronger. Progressing on this low level went a while while I was also using the Wiki on Fandom all the time to check all the details for the game mechanics out. At some point later I also gave magic a try. Seeing how the damage of a magic dart increased quite fast with its dices and damage value I thought at this time that magic is pretty overpowered and will easily outclass any melee.
1.2. The first accident
After some casual playing I achieved significant progress when I got enough medals to buy some artifacts in Miral and Garok's Workshop. With the I was able to do moderate amounts of damage (around ~200 at this time) and with the I had no issues with upcomming invisible creatures. Ironically I still had both items around the 800+ hours mark, since artifact items are usually pretty strong (especially in this game) even compared to random godly items and over the course of time you usually rarely progress with new random equipment in this game. At the end I was able to blast even level 50000+ monsters away with moderate ease which are all capped with all stats at 2000 - but more to my endgame build and what I all did later in this post. The next step was to progress with the story so I went for the 3 magic stones. When I approached Wynan on his chessboard he crushed 1 or 2 walls which stressed me out (which also happened later on some other locations) since on trying to fix this later it turned out this is not possible - as placing wall tiles with the Wall Creation spell or removing them to fix floor tiles will always result in a default wall/floor tile - making it impossible to create specific ones as I really wanted to preserve all the static areas in the game. I was a bit sad about it and hoped that in the future there would be a way to fix this - like a way to choose which wall/floor tiles to place; a janitor set that allows you to actually also design some static areas at some point; or some other solution. My savefile was now slighly messed up and I just continued - always hoping that I can just fix all messed up floors in the future but also knowing that this is extremely unlikely to happen.
1.3. Careful grinding
Meanwhile I also grinded for more Little Sisters and got more Hero Cheese to improve survivability - which was a slight mistake at this point since I was still in act 1 (as I planned later to add additional body parts). Farming for Little Sisters was quite a serious task too since I wanted to avoid killing a single one to avoid reducing the spawn rate of Big Daddies. As far as I know this is another thing where you can permanently mess your save file up if you make a mistake so initially I did always fully clear a floor before approaching a Big Daddy and then even walling him in with enough distance to avoid him smashing the walls as enemies can still spawn randomly if enough turns pass - eventually an enemy would have appeared otherwise exactly in the turn when the Little Sister spawns just to kill her and mess my save file up (when I was much stronger I did not wall them in anymore and from the ~350 Little Sisters that spawned not a single one died during my whole playtime). When I also progressed more in the story and met Alsapia in Lesimas floor 30 I think I had around 300 hit points but still died on my first try against her. The neverending progression just continued until I was strong enough to finish act 1. But before defeating Zeome I also wanted to finish some side quests which lead to an interetsing experience. Ungaga in the Minotaur's Nest did land a critical hit on me with his first strike, probably with a very high roll and I lost around 700 hit points and died. He never did any damage this close to me again on my future attempt so I guess I was just extremely unlucky here.
1.4. The museum and its difficulties
One thing until this point that bothered me a bit was the museum. I wanted to collect all cards and statues to show them in my museum but anyone who tried to seriously fill a museum probably knows the troubles. There is not enough space to place them all even if you extend the default floor and additional floors can't be created. Also there is no sane way to track which statues/cards you already have in your museum so I decided to just collect the statues/cards from unique NPC's and very later on I even begun to remove some cards as space still became very limited (if you want to make your museum look halfway good and not to fill every single possible tile). At the end this is good enough to reach rank 1 and get all the points to get more platinum coins but I think this is something that could get enhanced. Especially since adding support for multiple floors and linking them to the ranking is not difficult.
2.0. Getting strong
One of my goals was to get new body parts as fast as possible from doctor Gavela as I wanted to avoid loosing more life as neccessary from early farmed Hero Cheese (I think I only lost 1 extra life due to this but it was still a bit annoying). I got 2 additional hands and my setup (either it was a sword and shield or already dual-wielding) changed to quad-wielding with a living weapon (lightsabre), , and . I think at this time I did roughly around 1000 damage per hit - which didn't progress too significantly for me anymore over the course of the next few hundred hours. Also I did experiment with my living weapon a bit and did reset it a few times at Maile - but was a bit annoyed that instead of being a reset for its level/gained attributes instead all attributes that were even before leveling it up got deleted too (e.g. if you get a living weapon with a good invoke and want to reset its level the invoke will be gone forever). At least the attributes from the material kit could have been kept as for example in my case the lightning resistance from being a diamond lightsabre got deleted too - while it was still made of diamond after resetting. Reapplying another material kit (even if the same) fixes this issue but it still feels a bit annoying. One thing that I got curious later on was why all enemies got in some cases just 1 damage no matter what. It turned out that the chain intervalls the weapons do are actually a nerf for cases when enemies can't do something on too many turns of the player (like perma-stunning them and stopping the time too often). Once it reaches 200 all enemies are getting just 1 damage from any source - limiting the combination of dual-wielding and time-stopping (this is also one reason why you want to avoid spreading too much different damage types on weapons as every damage type counts as its own attack and adds 1 to the chain interval - making the enemies just faster resistant to your damage). At the end I went full darkness damage on my living weapon since it seems the most useful - it mostly prevents any physical and magical threats, is very easy to apply to any regular enemy that is not immune to blindness or has innate superb resistance to darkness (even capped out enemies), according to the wiki sticks usually a bit longer than confusion from mind or sound damage (and confusion has the disadvantage that enemies could spawn other enemies if they fail to cast a spell) and does not stunlock the enemy to avoid high chain intervalls.
2.1. Common work
Nothing too spectacular happened from here except casual grinding and when blewing up Palmia for the side-quest I forgot to check for other adventures - and of course pissed some of. I was now curious if they would ever come to my home and trying to burn it but this did never happen. Meanwhile I had a ranch with a fairy to get more Secret Experiences of Kumiromi - which did net me the one and other a few times during my gameplay. If I would have found them as often as Happy Beds dropped for me I would have possibly already nearly capped out all my feats - those beds really dropped like biscuits for me. I also had a shop and did put all the cooked food I got from killed enemies there. I also did sell miracle and godly equipment there that I found but had no use for it. Since I played this game casually and in a more or less RPG-like manner Isca was the shopkeeper. I also intentionally wasted a rod of wishing to give her the negotiation skill as I had not much interest to dig into gene engineering yet. As shop feats I choosed Asthetic Sense to get more money and Proprietary Sales to get even more money. I still assume the latter is responsible for a display bug: Every time the day ends and the summary is shown the first message is partially duplicated with some nonsense. It sorts of depends of the last tiles you have somehow encountered - but I do not know the exact details. It is kind of funny when the message claims Isca has put Palmia into my shop storage^^ Also I had a farm with nothing spectacular in it. Mainly I did put fruit trees in there that I sto... borrowed. I also had a bigger tree farm in my house which I used to produce juice so I had not to go to Noyel anymore every once in a while to farm some snow.
2.2. Making money
My Win-LVL increased while I played more - without knowing what this actually meant. Later on I figured out the number there (in the current version of Elona+ shown as "Proper" in your character sheet) is just the highest level of a dungeon boss you killed. It seems to affect the danger level of newly generated dungeons and quests. Additionaly the highest danger level you entered/cleared or such seems to also affect this (and can be reset at Maile while the first can't). I got into the ranges of level 150-200 dungeons and things begun to get harder. And some point (possibly a bit earlier or maybe even shortly after act 2 - I don't remember exactly when) I noticed all enemies have now a gauge bar. I had around 3000 hit points and a Flash Wyvern could remove half of them when its gauge bar got full. Also the god enemies like Atlas begun to show up. I remember that I killed an early one with several magic darts from the distance but it was still pretty dangerous. However, at this point I got quite some extra money as the gold piles are in the 5 digit ranges here. Later I noticed that it seems to cap at 50000 and even much higher dungeons seem on average to yield even less money. It sort of felt like the money values are sort of overflowing and thus lowering the average a bit until some even more higher danger levels again. If I was wrong or what exactly was going on here is still unknown to me. But with the extra money and the sold cooked food I was able to increase my Investment skill more and more - as it levels pretty fast. It was also my first skill that reached level 2000 and thus requiring me only a bit over 50000 gold to invest 50 more ranks on a shopkeeper. At the end of my gameplay my blackmarket shopkeeper is now rank 66000 - but it feels not better than like rank 5000. Either the improvement is here extremely slow, maybe with diminishing returns or I did already hit the softcap and there is no point in investing here anymore.
2.3. The AP-system
One thing I was already concerned when I was still in act 1 and that influenced my gameplay heavily was the AP mechanic as I think it can sort of mess up your save file too. Currently after 966 hours my AP are 2500 (8500) which is the highest minimum value for my build when you buy only the skills and prepare to swap to any skill without wanting to increase your AP further. If I would have gone for additional speed/life my AP value would now be even higher - while I can achieve those values even without investing the AP. This has the theoretical advantage that I'm as best as possible prepared if updates of Elona+ add stuff to the AP mechanic. Players who instead capped out their AP wouldn't be able to get any more of them and potentially locking out from new stuff and thus messing up their save file. Also the AP system favors to save your Speed Upper potions/Hermes Blood, etc. ideally after you have capped out the related stats with AP which I also disliked. I think a better approach to this part of the AP system would be to not bind the stat increases to the base stats - but instead applying them as an invisible buff. This way it would solve the problems above (but also result in a bit higher stats on endgame builds). It probably sounds stupid to many who read this - but whatever, I just progress without the stat increases and the journey continued.
2.4. Rejected from some gods
Additionally I also went every year to the Truce Ground and temporarily worshipped another god to make them spawn in november and getting the specific training-related artifact. Unfortunately there is a bug that prevented me to do this a few times. Even having more than just enough favor and praying at the Truce Ground resulted in around half of all cases the related god to not appear. I don't know what exactly causes this issue but my guess is that switching to a god too late might have an impact on this issue. Also I remember that I have seen another user here in the past that has claimed about this issue. I guess it is just rare and since the exact conditions are unknown I expect it not to be fixed soon - if at any point at all. My current approach was to not switch to a god later than september and so far my last summoning in november was successfull but I would have to test this further.
2.5. Improving my gear
Via the course of this grinding I also improved my gear. While randomly generated equipment very rarely improved my current equipment and too often even very early artifacts were very superior, all my equipment was hardened to +10 via a blacksmith and to +15 via stardusts. The new improvement was reforging their type and applying a more effective material kit on them. Since I wanted to balance stuff out most of my armor got a Dragon Scale material kit as it has a good improvement to DV and PV while also providing fire and cold resistance which is quite important to avoid item destruction in tricky cases ( I always carry a fireproof and coldproof blanket with me just in case. Too bad filling charges seems to be limited (even accross other items I think) to lower values than you can potentially buy (13 charges in case of blankets). Maybe it would be better if the cap of filling charges would be dependent on your Magic Device level - this would also make this skill a bit more useful. Also: Needs coldproof liquids!).
3.0. Becomming healthy
I finished act 2 at some point and got to a point where I noticed a significant EXP increase from enemies (panic/challenge quests; dungeon bosses; enemies in the Void floor 200+). For example a random spider in the Void floor 200+ gave me around 4 million EXP per kill. Since the EXP cap for levels is 100 million and every level gave me some hit points (in newer versions of Elona+ I now get hit points only every 4 levels - but around 4 times higher than before). My stats slowly crawled up - I think to around 300 - 400 on all main stats, ~100+ on most skills mostly due to travelling except the 2000 in Investment and some hundred levels in Lockpicking since I noticed troubles opening all those chests, safes and treasure balls on higher danger levels. However, the contents never seemed to get any better anymore despite requiring a more and more higher Lockpicking skill. I remember having seen the Skeleton Key once in the log after casting Oracle but unfortunately it was generated in the Void and the floor was already gone for a while. In all those 966 hours sadly I have never seen another generated Skeleton Key anymore (but tons of s - which unfortunately have no effect on Dimension Fishing - while it does even increase the Fishing skill, argh!). Much earlier I planned to keep all my spells up with my chacacter level - but stopped this approach on level 115. My main skills I used at this time (Magic Dart, Cure of Eris or Jua, Speed, Attribution Shield, Feather, Holy Shield, Holy Veil, Vanquish Hex), were around level 200+ - 300+. Too bad some spells do not increase with higher levels (except the spell stock cost reduction up to level 300) while still increasing in mana points. For example my Magic Map spell (on hour 966 with level 623) has never improved in revealing the map more with a single cast. I continued to farm some more levels to get more hit points and to get some more stat increases from some Ether Diseases I currently intentionally had (like hooves and feathers for more speed). My hit points reached values around 15000 - 30000 and my speed got around to a buffed value of 1100+ and my Win-LVL was around 1000.
3.1. A laboratory for all your plushies
From this point nothing too spectacular happened anymore. I slowly advanced in the Void, farmed Little Sisters and also fame in dungeons to make panic/challenge quests more worth, I did party time quests to get Music Tickets as well as hopefully finding a godly Casino Table and Pachisuro Machine. Also I advanced Leold's side quest in killing higher level monsters for even more music tickets and invested them into Hero Cheese for even more hit points. I also slowly killed more and more unique NPC's to get their statues for my museum. At some point I got tired power leveling my spells after I slept enough times so I decided to make my life a bit easier. I designed my dungeon to be a laboratory with cells for different types of enemies. One of the cells contains 2 Meshera Deltas, which do cast Silence on me all the time from their cell while I'm outside and out of their pyhsical reach. That process speeds up spell leveling very much as there are now no spell animations anymore. A bit earlier when I tried to get some Asuras in a cell I noticed later they were all gone. To solve the issue with depsawning monsters I just sandbaged them and only release them when I need them for training (and sandbag them again once I'm done).
3.2. Facing Death's aspirant
After this the progression went pretty fast. Mainly because I actually invested now platinum coins to train offensive skills (mainly Tactics, Dual Wield, Eye of Mind and Long Sword) to get much higher than the ~150+ skill levels they had. I also got additional levels from killing monsters - usually now 12 million - 13 million EXP per kill resulting in more hit points and some Hero Cheese from music tickets for even more hit points again. Around that time I also leveled 5 living weapons to level 10 with applying strength to them so I could temporary buff my strength to 1000+ as I wanted to get 1 of every altar in my home. Slowly my offensive skills evolved and I had around 60000 - 70000 hit points. Around this time I tried to kill Amurdad to get the as I planned to advance some stats later with a farm full of herbs. My first try on killing Amurdad resulted in that I could not get past his Super Regene healing and he drained my stamina up to a point where he could easily kill me. The grinding continued and my stats got higher, up to around 300+ - 400+ in said offensive skills and 150000+ hit points. That was sufficient enough to finally beat Amurdad to get the scissors. Now I have a farm with a Statue of Kumiromi, 72 planted herbs and 8 Kumiromi's Gem Stone of Rejuvenation. At this point Quad-Wielding with time-stopping felt very lacking as I had usually very high chain intervalls, too often now over 200 forcing me to wait a few turns. Since at this point I pretty much studied most of the Wiki on Fandom I wanted to try something else. The idea was 3 living weapons (all lightsabres (I think 1 was reforged) since living weapons at this stage of gameplay are pretty common) while leveling the first 2 lightsabres with nether damage up to level 10 and the last one to darkness damage up to level 10 and a shield for more defense. I also made the 2 lightsabres with nether damage super heavy (250s each) to cap out the critical damage even if the enemies wear heavy equipment. This turned out to be super useful as I did around 10000 - 15000 nether damage on most enemies per hit per sword which also healed me for this amount - around half the amount my Cure of Jua spell heals. A bit later I had also buffed around 1300 PV but the enemies still hit for 15000 - 30000 damage. I advanced my equipment to have a bit higher magic resistance and spellcasters barely were a threat now with the few thousand damage they did. The exception are water spells as they ignore any resistances causing also to do around 15000 - 30000 damage per hit. However, protecting against spellcasters was much more easy than protecting against physical attacks (mainly due to bosses you barely can blind). But I also had not actively trained Evasion yet - I planned this once I have more sandbags for Asuras.
3.3. The Escalation
Then the update happened that brought a cap of 100 to platinum coins and skill/spell points. Since I had accumulated over 3000 skill and spell points I waited for a specific training day and used Advanced Casting and then burned all my points into Swimming and... Wishing! Now with an equipped magaqua (as I never used one before as I wanted to train Swimming over time) and a Swimming skill quite over 1000 I achieved a buffed speed of around 2000 (while still having ~600 base speed). With my Gamma Shift Core I wished earlier for it is even around 2500 speed. My Traveling skill is only around 200 but this together makes me fast enough that it is not too hard capping out skill and spell points in a single ingame day - which is quite tricky since I want to use them only if I'm on a specific day to optimally boost my skills which requires me often to skip some days. At this point I wish I could just use the over 1000 Small Medals I have to just upgrade my "Magic Bag" to fit in more skill and spell points and platinum coins as at this stage of gameplay it is sort of required to play effectively. I got stronger and stronger and the enemies began to cap out their stats slowly at 2000. Every few enemies I have killed achieved the next goal of Leold's side quest and switching continents all the time, going to Leold, teleporting to the Craddle of Chaos, reading a Scroll of Escape and switching continents again was quite annoying. If doctor Gavela could borrow Leold and me just a Mobile Communication Equipment with integrated fax - then Leold could just fax me those Music Tickets every time I advance in the quest!^^ Since capped out enemies were less and less a threat I begun to beat higher dungeon bosses and getting a higher Win-LVL until I noticed bosses won't go here over level 8332. But there seem to be some exceptions. Once a Shade generated as dungeon boss and it was only level 6666 (I think it was not even generated as boss type) and at some point I got unnoticed a Win-LVL of 11110. I guess there is an exception that generates something at level 11110 - maybe it was the Putit Tank I encountered but I don't know. After this point the danger levels incremented about several thousands once I did beat a new higher one. Currently the highest danger levels I see are a bit over 100000. The mechanics in them are also quite interesting: It seems hidden passages (blocked by wall tiles) still scale in this high levels. When I just use 1 skill point to bring my Detection skill from 0% potential to 20% potential I get 20 levels at once (and 0% potential again) with one revealed hidden path. No matter how many more potential I put into (even 400%) I never get more than 20 levels at once - I guess this is the cap how many skill levels in general you can get at once. Luckily revealing a hidden path is still easy with 1000+ Detection on those high danger levels so it is not much of an issue. But my 100+ Disarm Trap skill has basically no effect anymore and so I trigger every trap I step on. Also opening up chests/safes/treasure balls with 1200+ Lock Picking results most in the time that the lock is beyond my skill. Too bad the loot in those containers seems to have already capped out around danger levels of 100+ and they are not more worth later on (but still much more difficult to open). I fear if danger levels have no cap and continue to grow exponentially I will see at some point a crash every time a dungeon with a too high danger level is being generated. Nice side-effects are that the gained fame is based on the danger level and your current fame causing me to get easily over 20000 fame per cleared dungeon (I'm currently around 700000 fame) and the panic/challenge quests cause now to generate monster levels around the danger levels I see resulting in getting over 60 million EXP per kill (I think I'm on the cap of 640000080 EXP).
3.4. An unfortunate event
However, today something bad happened. When I was creating some Cure Crystals on the Pot for Fusion to easily remove single Ether Diseases (since I want to keep some other) I did create 3 * 10 of them. This resulted in 30 Cure Crystals but only 19 Empty Bottles instead of the expected 30. Later I noticed that sadly some items in my house were gone. So I did hit the cap of 400 items and the creation of new items has caused a deletion. I actually thought the cap of 400 items is a soft cap and specific game mechanics can go temporary over them without causing troubles - I guess I was wrong. Too bad that actual item deletion this way is possible - and that the Cure Crystals and Empty Bottles have not been stacked. Initially I planned to stop continuing playing my save file due to this accident and just writing the story of my playthrough somewhere in hope it improves stuff (ideally this would reach out to Ano somehow but I doubt it). But on making a second look it looks like there is a specific pattern to the item deletion. All items that I confirm being gone had a very low base value and the important stuff seems to be still there. I just hope the stack of my current 114 artifact equipments has not been affected as checking and recovering them could be quite some work.
Thats pretty much the story. I have a few plans what to do next once I should find the motivation to continue. One thing I noticed is that Yacatect's Banks are not a global storage - they are local on their own. And since it seems you get 10% interest after every 2400 hours the amount of gold would escalate at some point (up to the cap). It seems they are an easy way to get nearly an endless source of money if you setup your own terra-cotta armee with them. I'm also trying to figure out a way to mitigate Brainwashing as this is still a very significant threat. My hope is that enough mind resistance would make you immune against it. Another thing I experiemented with is trying out cursed equipment as an alternative but one piece causes already a huge health loss every few turns. Also I'm curious if enough magic resistance can make you immune to any hex from enemies with 2000+ casting. To test some of this stuff I probably would have to dig more into the artifact fusion system. I think if a randomly found item (like a godly one) has too many and too strong stats it counts more towards the artifact power - making it ironically more difficult to apply the wanted attributes later on it. This might be a reason why Ehekatls passive feat you can obtain might be counter-productive here and possibly needs another toggle. Also if my Casting/Literacy/Memorization skill is high enough I would consider reading some/all of my wishing spell books that I found and kept during the entire playthrough (I found 5 but read (and failed) 1 by accident when I spammed reading on all common books I found) to summon all gods and killing them. I also wanted to figure out if all the ...borrowed Holy Wells could be useful in the future too since it seems they still regenerate their charges. At least they are useful ranking up at the Thieves Guild really fast (with a sell value of over 60000). Werewolves are quite a problem too and I'm not sure if some towns just bugged out. Even killing all werewolves I found and duelling all werewolve detectives caused them to respawn (I have some towns with 2 detectives). I'm unsure how to fix this but my current plan was getting more s from going deeper into the Void (as duelling in Amur-Cage never dropped any more s for me) and then checking every person if they are still a werewolf.
Progress on hour 966
At the end I'm now on level 1121 with ~350000 HP and ~150000 MP. My main stats are around 600+ - 700+ with speed buffed to 2000+. The offensive skills like Tactics, Long Sword, etc. are around 500 - 800 and my current damage multiplier for every of my lightsabres is 71.5. Some stats posted earlier and the order of the story might be slightly inaccurate since this happened all over the course of a year and my memory is not perfect but mostly it should be pretty fine.
The only thing I could list now would be a few things I would like to get enhanced in this game: - Obviously the item deletion issue that eventually caused me to delete my save file. - A way to better fix static areas as mentioned earlier above. - Other fixes to prevent messing up a save file, partially mentioned above too. Additionally for example if you kill all Old humankinds there seems to be no way to get them later. I'm also unsure where to recruit a if both in Rehmido have been destroyed. - I/O performance improvements. The overhead seems to be very high and is noticeable especially on a HDD. Examples of issues are frequent opening of menus (like opening gambling chests) and the Appearance selection menu. - Fixing the broken viewport (that on some resolutions some columns/rows can't be (partially) seen). For me if an enemy is on the top row I can't see him including his important gauge bar - which is quite an issue. - Better view on enemy bars. If they are behind a wall the gauge bar is not visible anymore which is also a big issue. - Support for user paths. It would be nice if the configuration file and save files would be saved into the user directory so upgrading the game would be possible in a more uncomplicated way. - Translations. - Fixing items not being liftable if your inventory is full even if the exact same item is in your inventory (e.g. you have an unidentified Scroll of Curse in all 3 variants in your inventory (blessed, normal, cursed) but you can't now pickup any other unidentified Scroll of Curse you find on the ground). - Better stacking support of items. For example catching Stray Cats with Monster Balls of different levels will prevent them being stackable (while the Monster Ball levels apparently play no role anymore). Items from vendors with different selling prices can't be stacked too since the price is determined due to the different base value. In this case it would be better if those items would have the same base value and instead get a (higher) buying multiplier directly from the vendor (even while this would have the disadvatage of lower (the normal ones) selling values of those items). The same material kits you get from Garok can't be stacked too for some reason (even if the color is reverted to the default with a bottle of dye #0). Debris of the same level can't be always stacked too as they generate with different colors (but applying a bottle of dye #0 can workaround this in that case). Also when Monster Balls capped out at level 200 in the past it was easy to stack them for example for catching all the Stray Cats and enemies Arasiel wants. Now it is harder to get Monster Balls of the same level for easy stacking. - A way to easily reduce stats even more (the might not be good enough anymore if you reach 2000 Traveling). Eventually it might make sense if you could somehow get negative stats too via the artifact fusion system (for example if the Scroll of Gain Attribute is cursed). - Immediate sprite update once you get brainwashed. - Stopping spammed idle actions (numpad 5) when you receive damage (like starving). In some other cases the game already stops some spammed actions so it would be more consistent. - If all windows would behave like Stained Glass Windows requiring you to put them into the wall tile instead. This would allow you to put 3 instead of only 2 items before the window before they turn into a bag and also it would avoid hovering the items up. - Fixing the bug that item sprites sometimes change temporary if you talk to somebody (e.g. a pile of items from a past quest reward sometimes turns into a bag when you talk to somebody and reverts back when you stop talking to somebody). - Named fruit trees so they are more easily distinguishable. - All the other things already mentioned in the story. There is probably so much more that I don't remember now but those should be the most important things I would like to get fixed/changed. But as sayed somewhere before: I doubt this will happen but at least I gave it a try and posted all my experiences with the game even if this post required quite many hours to create and check (I think around 6+ and now I'm tired, hopefully I did not miss too many gramatical spelling errors and typos). Edit: Fixed some typos and added headings for easier reading.
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn 
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% ). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth 
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years .
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies 
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate . This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% 
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.  Wall Street Research - 6/27/19  https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302  https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d  Wall Street Research - 5/19/20 https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php  https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
I am making a weather map/travel planning map I need every public race track listed. See any missing?
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Good morning everyone, get ahead of the week, follow your rules, let’s all make some money Of note for Semiconductors (SOX), Japan is aiming to invite Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) or other global chipmakers to build an advanced chip manufacturing plant jointly with domestic chip equipment suppliers. Of note for Automakers (F, GM, FCAU, TSLA),Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) CEO Diess reportedly told the Executive Board that the Co. is expecting to return to pre-COVID sales/profit at the commencement of 2023. This week’s Barron’s articles argues that chains like Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are focused on value, and as a result, they are a growth story when other retailers are not, noting that when economic conditions become more difficult for consumers, the dollar stores get going. A separate article notes that SoftBank (SFTBY) considering an IPO of its Arm Holdings makes sense, and it’s an important signal for investors about the future of the chip business. Chipotle (CMG) should “crush its earnings” this week, and Barron’s notes one sell-side analyst stating investors should buy the August USD 1,150 call option to cover the July 22nd earnings report. On banks (XLF, BKX), It might be time to embrace the uncertainty around bank names and consider Wells Fargo (WFC), the worst-performing of the big banks this year, noting that Wells has something the other banks don’t have: problems to fix. Goldman Sachs (GS) is a rare big financial company with an improving business and earnings outlook, Barron’s said, and it has a stock that looks reasonably priced at little more than 10x forward earnings. Barron’s argues that while shares of index providers MSCI (MSCI) and S&P Global (SPGI) aren’t cheap, both stocks could keep rising as new products and services translate into higher sales and profits
Boeing Company (BA) is running out of space to stash newly-built 787 Dreamliner’s, with dozens of the planes sitting on the company’s premises, sources said; one BA watcher puts the number at 50, more than double the number of jets typically awaiting customers along Boeing’s flight lines. Elsewhere, Boeing and Etihad broaden its sustainability alliance by testing innovations on ecoDemonstrator 787, which flies on sustainable fuel made from vegetable oil, and waste animal fat. Meanwhile, NASA administrators are very confident in the SLS flying during 2021. Chevron Corp. (CVX) is to acquire Noble Energy (NBL) for USD 5bln in an all-stock transaction, or USD 10.38/shr, with a total enterprise value, including debt, of USD 13bln; the deal marks a 7% premium for Noble, which trades at 50% below its 52-week high. Goldman Sachs Group (GS) Senior Executives flew into Malaysia for talks with the government on the recovery of 1MDB assets; Malaysian prosecutors have charged GS and 17 current and former directors of its units for allegedly misleading investors over bond sales totalling USD 6.5 billion that the US bank helped raise for sovereign wealth fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB). Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) signed an agreement with the UK to secure 90mln doses of two possible COVID-19 vaccines from the company and French Group Valneva. Note, the two Cos also announced early positive update from German Ph1/2 study; generated strong t-cell data; supports and expands upon early results from the corresponding US trial reported earlier in July.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) had its PT raised to a street high of USD 3800 at Goldman Sachs and Jefferies. Goldman Sachs maintains a conviction buy rating on the shares, rising the PT to the street high from USD 3,000. Analyst Heath Terry updated his estimates ahead of earnings to reflect the accelerating e-commerce growth. Revenue estimates are increased by 3% per year on average, while EBTIDA is left unchanged due to COVID expenditure and for an increase in infrastructure spending due to faster growth in retail and AWS. Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) NBCUniversal is reportedly planning broad-based layoffs to offset losses from the pandemic. eBay Inc. (EBAY) Classifieds business auction has been awarded to Norway’s Adevinta for close to USD 9bln, where eBay will keep a minority stake in the unit, according to a source. Earlier reports noted it would be USD 8bln or above. Elsewhere, eBay (EBAY) is to begin expanding its management of payments globally; expected to deliver USD 2bln in revenue and USD 500mln in operating income in 2022. Facebook, Inc. (FB) has had its advertising expenditure by Disney (DIS) dramatically cut, according to sources. Disney was Facebook’s top US advertiser for the first six months of 2020, research firm Pathmatics estimates. Meanwhile, The FTC is considering taking sworn testimony from Facebook (FB) CEO and COO as part of its investigation into whether the social-media giant has violated US antitrust laws, sources said; top Facebook officials are preparing for potential depositions and some are worried about the possibility. Tesla (TSLA) is being probed by South Korean Fair Trade Commission, who launched an internal review of its advertising that described its autopilot as self-driving technology, according to Korea Herald citing sources. Meanwhile, it has also pulled another “demand lever” for it Model Y and has begun offering a lease agreement to customers for the vehicle.
S & P 500
Celanese (CE) announced it has raised its share repurchase authorisation by USD 500mln to USD 1.563bln. Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) told its pilots that furloughs could be avoided if they agree to a cut in guaranteed minimum pay, according to CNBC. Ford Motor (F) and MobilEye have expanded its relationship to offer better camera-based collision avoidance in vehicles. Halliburton Co. (HAL) Q2 20 (USD): Adj EPS 0.05 (exp. -0.12), Revenue 3.2bln (exp. 3.34bln). It recognised USD 2.1bln of pre-tax impairments and other charges in the quarter. North America revenue -57% Q/Q to USD 1bln. Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) has been awarded a USD 15bln contract for C-130J development. Quest Diagnostics (DGX) received the FDA’s green light for pooled testing, using the same COVID-19 molecular diagnostic first authorised by the agency in mid-March. Southwest Airlines (LUV) – Almost a quarter of pilots accepted either early retirement or voluntary leave offers, according to CNBC. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is expanding capacity for those developing new and existing therapies for COVID; now supporting more than 200 projects globally. Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) announced the hackers on last week’s attack did more than cryptocurrency fraud, but they also walked away with some users personal data, according to WSJ. The report notes that data was taken from eight users.
Alibaba (BABA) Ant Group is to plan simultaneous IPOs in Shanghai and Hong Kong, according to reports. AstraZeneca (AZN LN, AZN) to publish eagerly anticipated COVID-19 trial results today. The FDA authorised its first COVID-19 diagnostic test for pools of samples, to let laboratories conserve resources by evaluating several people at once Eldorado Resorts (ERI) USD 17.3 billion acquisition of Caesars Entertainment (CZR) received approval from The New Jersey Casino Control Commission, the last regulatory approval needed before the deal can close; the deal will result in the formation of the largest gaming company in the US. Nikola (NKLA) chairman filed a new stock offering of up to 53.4mln shares related to warrants, but later noted it was just part of the process, adding “it’s difficult going ipo and after this, we’ll be full steam ahead”. Deutsche Bank note that the S-1 filing became effective, meaning 24mln warrants are now exercisable, which provides holders the right to buy shares for USD 11.50 and the 53.4mln shares owned by PIPE investors, enables them to be traded on the market. The analyst believes the potential for a portion of these 77mln shares to hit the market could create large technical selling pressure. PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) and Royalty Pharma (RPTX) announced an agreement to acquire a portion of PTC’s royalty interest in risdiplan for USD 650mln in a one-time payment. Samsung (SSNLF) is reportedly struggling to improve 5nm process yield, according to Digi Times citing sources. The article notes “It remains to be seen whether unsatisfactory yield rates at Samsung Electronics’ 5nm EUV process may affect the launch of Qualcomm’s next-generation flagship 5G mobile chip series. Uber (UBER) and Alphabet Google (GOOG, GOOGL) announced a four-year agreement with Alphabet’s unit to use the Google Maps Platform Rides and Deliveries Services; Financial terms were not disclosed. Yum China (YUMC) named official retail food services sponsor of the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games, also becomes an official sponsor of the Chinese Olympic Committee through 2024-end.
Additional US equity stories
Walmart (WMT) is restarting talks of a potential sale of its UK supermarket unit, Asda - potentially of note for Tesco (TSCO LN), Sainsbury's (SBRY LN), Morrison's (MRW LN), Marks & Spencer's (MKS LN) Sorento Therapeutics (SRNE) FDA has cleared the co.’s Abivertinib for Phase Two safety and efficacy study in hospitalized patients with moderate to severe coronavirus. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) announce early positive update from German Ph1/2 study; generated strong t-cell data; supports and expands upon early results from the corresponding US trial Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI) - Elliott Management calls upon CCI to outline a five-year plan for its fiber segment on its July 30th earnings call. Halliburton Co. (HAL) CEO says international business is continuing to be a more meaningful contributor to the company going forward; believes North America production will remain structurally lower in the future. The CEO Expects to see a more disciplined market with stronger operators and
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